Who will succeed Stoltenberg, and will the new NATO leader change the strategy regarding support for Ukraine?
*Muscovy — the historically correct name of the Muscovite Empire and the Russian Federation.
Many may recall how the current NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, transitioned from cautious and vague statements regarding Ukraine's support to a firm stance on the necessity of extensive military aid to Ukraine to ensure victory over the occupying Muscovite forces.
To proceed, let us recall a few key points:
Beyond its security component, NATO also has an essential political dimension to its activities. Thus, it is crucial for the new NATO leader to maintain active contacts with the political establishment of NATO member states. However, Stoltenberg’s decade-long tenure as Secretary General has somewhat dulled his political ties with European elites despite his regular meetings with politicians. While Stoltenberg undoubtedly has connections, influence, and respect, the candidates vying for his position possess fresher and potentially stronger political ties due to their active involvement in national politics.
NATO has a modest military budget of only €2 billion, which limits its ability to directly assist anyone, including Ukraine. As a result, any NATO initiatives require collective support from the national governments of member states. Hence, the first point — active political connections — is paramount.
Given the absence of a unified position among NATO members on offering Ukraine a clear invitation to join the Alliance, Kyiv must hope that the new Secretary General will leverage their political influence to encourage national governments to increase military support for Ukraine, expand the defense-industrial complex in European countries, and address related issues.
It is worth noting that, amid some controversy, Stoltenberg agreed to extend his term for another year until October 1, 2024, but no further.
Currently, the only official candidate being considered as Stoltenberg’s successor is former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. However, calling him "former" is somewhat misleading, as the Netherlands has yet to form a new majority following the election results, and Rutte’s government continues to function in a caretaker capacity for the third consecutive month.
Interestingly, throughout NATO's history, Dutch nationals have collectively held the Alliance's top position for the longest period (22 years).
Recently, it was reported that some U.S. Congress members opposed Rutte’s candidacy for the NATO position. The official reason for this opposition is that the Netherlands has not invested sufficiently in NATO.
This view, of course, depends on perspective: in 2014, Dutch defense spending accounted for 1.15% of GDP. By 2024, under Rutte’s leadership, this figure had increased to nearly the NATO target of 1.95%, with plans to exceed the 2% target in 2025. Moreover, under Rutte, according to the Kiel Institute's tracker, the Netherlands became one of Ukraine’s key partners, ranking among the top seven countries in terms of aid provided. This does not include the funds allocated by Rutte’s government as part of European Commission programs supporting Ukraine.
Additionally, it is known that Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is interested in the NATO Secretary General position, though she is not officially being considered at this time.
Former UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace is also expected to make a second attempt at the position after failing last time due to Washington’s preference to extend Stoltenberg’s term.
Among the candidates, Rutte appears to have the strongest potential to become NATO’s next Secretary General.
He would also be the best option for Ukraine and, accordingly, the worst option for the Kremlin’s aggressive ambitions:
Rutte is clearly the strongest choice in terms of political influence on national governments in Europe.
Former UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace offers a balance of political influence and military experience, but he has yet to confirm whether he will run again, despite rumors of his interest.
For maximum motivation to counter Muscovy's aggression on NATO’s eastern flank, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is a compelling candidate. She sees the Secretary General's role as an opportunity to prepare the Alliance for defending the Baltic States against potential Kremlin aggression. Kallas views strong support for Ukraine as a means to prevent or delay direct or hybrid Muscovite invasions in the Baltic region.
Finally, it should be noted that the next NATO Secretary General will face unprecedented challenges, both external and internal. The primary internal risk for NATO is the potential victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election and, consequently, a reduced U.S. role in NATO and Europe, as suggested by Trump’s recent statements.
Based on our sources, we believe Mark Rutte is the most likely candidate to succeed Stoltenberg as NATO Secretary General.