What is happening on the border between Venezuela and Guyana, and how is Putin involved again?

*Muscovy — the historically correct name of the Muscovite Empire and the Russian Federation.

Yesterday, the internet was shaken by headlines claiming a war had started between Venezuela and Guyana, but a preliminary analysis of official news and government pages of Guyana showed that there is no panic or problems. Moreover, in Guyana, joint exercises with American military forces are currently underway on the border. It would be highly shortsighted on Maduro's part to start a military operation while American troops are in Guyana. The videos you saw were likely real skirmishes on the border, but with drug cartels. So, does this mean war is canceled? Not quite.

A historical overview. Guyana is a country formed by the unification of several British colonies. It is the only country in South America where the official language is English. It is the only country in South America where the president is Muslim. It is one of the poorest countries in South America, yet it is also a country where American agencies predict an economic growth of 300-1000% by the end of 2025. How is that possible?

The fact is, some of the largest oil and gold reserves in the world have been discovered in Guyana. The deposits are still not fully explored, but the known data already puts the reserves at 10 billion barrels, making it the 4th largest globally and 1st globally in terms of barrels per capita. As recently as 2015, the Chinese company Offshore Oil discovered an additional 46 oil fields. However, the most significant presence is held by American companies ExxonMobil and Hess. Qatar Energy, France’s TotalEnergies, and others have also acquired rights to extraction.

This year, the Guyanese government completed the first round of tenders for oil extraction in 11 blocks with a total capacity of 620,000 barrels per day. Currently, all of Venezuela produces 750,000 barrels per day. The full capacity of these blocks is expected to be operational by late 2024-25, which explains the American analysts' forecast of Guyana’s economy growing by 3–10 times. By 2027, oil production is expected to reach 1 million barrels per day, meaning this small country with a population of 850,000 will surpass Qatar, Azerbaijan, and Venezuela in terms of output.

If Guyana’s government successfully launches everything, it is likely to gain the status of the "South American Emirates." For the U.S., this would be a trump card to reduce OPEC's influence on global oil prices.

But there is one “but.” All these reserves are located in the disputed region between Guyana and Venezuela, called "Guyana Essequibo." This territory makes up two-thirds of Guyana. How disputed is it? The international community recognizes this region as part of Guyana, and the International Court rejected Venezuela's claim to the territory. However, in true Putin fashion, Maduro has decided to legitimize his claims through a referendum that will not be recognized by the international community.

On December 3rd, a referendum will take place in Venezuela with a set of questions essentially declaring a unilateral annexation of two-thirds of another country’s territory. To reiterate, the vast majority of nations recognize this land as part of Guyana.

Maduro’s argument for the referendum sounds like this: "The U.S. wants to build military bases there in the future." A similar argument was used by Putin to justify his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Another aspect of the referendum is that Maduro seeks to boost his ratings ahead of the 2024 elections. Following a prolonged crisis, Maduro agreed to hold elections in exchange for reducing U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry.

So, will Venezuela attack Guyana?

Maduro is one of Putin’s closest allies. He fully supports, shares, and embraces the principle of power and the desire to redraw the political map of the world. Most experts agree that through the referendum, Maduro seeks to legitimize an invasion and annexation, just as Putin did. Guyana’s army is seven times smaller than Venezuela’s. Meanwhile, Maduro’s forces have been receiving weapons from Muscovy during 2022-2023.

The goals of Putin and the interest in new conflicts are obvious. Moscow would be delighted if the U.S. were forced to spread its resources and attention across a third conflict on another continent, especially considering the U.S.’s energy interests in Guyana. There is ample evidence that Moscow’s diplomacy is encouraging Maduro to take this step. Arguments include "historical U.S. weakness," "redistribution of spheres of influence," and so on.

But here, too, there is a “but”: the reaction of the U.S., the U.K., China, Brazil, Qatar, and Indonesia. Maduro could face unpredictable consequences, especially as the U.S., the U.K., and Brazil have pledged support to Guyana. So how far is Maduro willing to risk everything? That remains the question.

Key takeaways:

1. Putin opened Pandora's box by destroying the global security system. The legalization of annexations and aggression through sham referendums is becoming normalized.

2. Easing sanctions and loosening the noose around Maduro was an idea of Jake Sullivan’s office and supported by Biden. This is yet another strategic mistake by the U.S., which has provided resources for the Maduro regime to restore its power and now threaten a neighboring country.

3. Today, Henry Kissinger passed away. Despite one’s opinion of him, he was a figure of an era. However, his theory of "realpolitik," which was meant to be just one tool of international relations, was elevated to the level of an "absolute religion." This will have consequences for decades. Kissinger is gone, but the errors and distortions remain in the minds of his successors.

P.S. To understand Guyana’s importance right now: just this week, the small South American country hosted a 5-day visit by a Canadian parliamentary delegation, representatives of the Pentagon, members of the British government, and, a week earlier, Chinese officials.