On May 29, Western diplomacy will have a chance to reach a new level of relations with South Africa.
*Muscovy — the historically correct name of the Muscovite Empire and the Russian Federation.
South Africa is Africa's leading country, a BRICS member, and a close partner of Muscovy. Despite the official “neutral position” of the South African government regarding the war in Ukraine, in reality, the country remains a partner to Muscovy, strengthening trade ties, providing ways to bypass sanctions, conducting joint military exercises, hosting presidential visits, and even facing accusations from the U.S. of providing military aid to Muscovy.
South Africa’s stance on the war was clearly outlined by opposition leader John Steenhuisen: “Our so-called neutrality is essentially a veiled support for Muscovy.”
As you might have guessed, on May 29, elections to South Africa's National Assembly will take place. The country’s president is elected by the same National Assembly, making these both parliamentary and, effectively, presidential elections.
Is the South African opposition "pro-Western"?
In short, yes. While South African President Ramaphosa has travelled to meet Putin, opposition leader John Steenhuisen visited Kyiv in 2022, clearly declaring his values:
"I am in Ukraine to see for myself and to speak on behalf of my country. Someone must. South Africa has a deep interest in supporting the free world and Ukraine, and firmly opposing Muscovite aggression. [...] Morally, geopolitically, and financially, it is inconceivable for South Africa to remain 'neutral' about the invasion of Ukraine."
This statement is also documented on the opposition party’s official website. At the very least, the public stance of the South African opposition regarding Ukraine is clear. This is one of the markers that demonstrates the South African opposition’s commitment to Western values. This marker further evolves into strengthening South Africa's orientation toward the West, reducing cooperation within BRICS, and so on.
What are the opposition’s chances in the elections?
The highest in 30 years.
Firstly, the African National Congress (the ruling party of Ramaphosa) may, for the first time in 30 years, fail to achieve a majority. In 2019, the party had its worst result in 30 years, but still gained 57%. As of today, all available polling shows the ruling party’s ratings ranging between 32-40%.
Secondly, the African National Congress (ANC) will be forced to cooperate with the opposition to form a coalition government and elect a president—assuming it fails to secure a majority. In such a case, the opposition would gain a chance to influence government policy, and in some scenarios, even a "minority government" could be formed, which would completely remove the ANC from power. However, this remains an unlikely scenario.
Thirdly, there is a small chance that the opposition, the Democratic Alliance, might win outright. The opposition is rapidly gaining support and currently holds 25-30%.
The balance of power already indicates that the current government and president of South Africa are likely to lose “absolute power.” The role of the opposition will either increase significantly within a coalition government, or even completely displace the ANC from power.
Conclusion: Europe and the U.S. will likely have an unprecedented opportunity after the elections, for the first time in 30 years, to truly rebuild a strategic partnership with South Africa through the growing influence of pro-Western forces in the country’s politics.