Le Pen's disqualification: a chance for a comeback of traditionalism in French politics

Photo: REUTERS - Charles Platiau - Philippe Laurenson / Montage photo L'Express

The 2010s witnessed an escalation of economic and social contradictions in Europe. The Migration Crisis pushed for the growth of Eurosceptic tendencies and a decline in the popularity of traditional parties. Macron's candidacy in 2017 was perceived as a response to these challenges. His nomination outside of the two classical parties essentially left ruins on both ideological flanks: a certain part of the party members, and voters, moved to the centre, which was represented by the 39-year-old politician. This political camp was later named ‘macronists’. Macronism effectively destroyed the established political system of France.

However, it did not take into account the fact that a significant proportion of the electorate would start looking towards more radical forces on both flanks - the L'Indomitable France (LFI) on the left and the National Rally (RN) on the right. Disappointment with Macron's first-term policies led to the fact that in the first round of the 2022 presidential election, representatives of ‘non-traditional’ political forces collectively received more than 50 per cent of the votes. In the second round, when choosing between Macron and Le Pen for the second time, the French still chose the incumbent president. However, while in 2017 the gap between the finalists was 33%, in 2022 it was halved to 17%.

The re-election at such a high cost resulted in an extremely unsuccessful start to the second term: in the parliamentary elections held two months later, the Ensemble presidential bloc failed to win a majority. In general, in those elections, no force won a majority in the National Assembly. This is completely atypical for the Fifth Republic, as its electoral system is designed in such a way that the most popular political party can win a majority of seats without forming a coalition with other parties. So, quite legitimately, this result was perceived as a loss for the president. 

Macron is now at the equator of his second and last presidential term. It is time to elect a successor, otherwise Macronism will fade away with the exit of the movement's founder. Unpopular domestic policies, such as the 2023 pension reform, have shaken the level of support for an already extremely unpopular president. Macronists suffered another defeat in the European Parliament elections in June 2024. The early parliamentary elections that were announced afterwards resulted in the presidential party losing even the relative majority it had in the previous National Assembly. The political instability of Macron's second term is illustrated by the fact that the country had four prime ministers changed in 2024 alone. Thus, the chances of electing someone from the current president's party in 2027 look more and more fading.

Meanwhile, the inability to recover from the 2017 shock has haunted the Socialists and Republicans throughout both of Macron's terms. In the 2022 presidential election, candidates from both parties suffered a catastrophic defeat, leaving them far outside the second round. The PS candidate then received a miserable 1.75%. Her opponent from LR was slightly ahead with a result of 4.78%. The same trend continued in that year's parliamentary elections - PS and LR won only 65 and 51 seats out of 577, correspondingly. Instead, ideological competitors on the flanks are showing rapid growth, especially the RN - Le Pen's party. While at the beginning of Macron's presidency, the party had only 7 members in the French parliament, Le Pen's faction currently has 119 members. 

Le Pen has participated in the presidential race three times, in 2012, 2017 and 2022, with each time a higher result. Furthermore, recent polls have promised the RN candidate up to 37% in the first round, twice as much as her closest rivals. Nevertheless, the court verdict of 31 March 2025 will almost certainly disqualify Le Pen from the 2027 presidential race. She will obviously be replaced by Jordan Bardella, the face of the party in recent years, who, however, will be only 31 years old at the time of the election. The party, whether represented by Le Pen, who will succeed in appealing her ban, or by the young Bardella, will be significantly weakened and demoralised internally by 2027. So there are good reasons to believe that the RN's popularity peaked in 2024, at least in this historical period.

Against the backdrop of Le Pen's neutralisation and Macron's unsuccessful second term, the 2027 elections could see the revival of the traditional political system that has existed since the 1960s. During the years spent in opposition, new bright politicians have emerged in the Socialist and Republican camps. In the following months, both parties will appoint their leaders, which will mark the beginning of preparations for the presidential race. The final test of strength is expected in March next year, when local elections will be held in France.