Analysing mass protests in Turkey

Tunahan Turhan / SOPA Images / ZUMA Press Wire / Scanpix / LETA

But first, to get into the context, we suggest you look at some quite high-quality and impactful footage from the streets of protesting Turkey.
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Who is Ekrem Imamoglu?

We are not going to describe the entire biography of the mayor of Istanbul, but will focus on some interesting points. Imamoglu was born in 1970. Compared to Erdogan, who is now 71 years old, the fifty-five-year-old Imamoglu looks like a very young and lively politician. His father owned a construction company, which probably helped the young man to enter the American Private University in Cyrinthia. This is an interesting point because, unlike classical Turkish education, this university used American models and teaching methods.

Back in the 1990s, Imamoglu became interested in politics, and in 2013, he already achieved his first major victory. He took part in the mayoral elections in the Beylikdüzü district and defeated the candidate from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which is led by Erdogan. By the way, there was a funny moment here that may have influenced what is happening now. The fact is that the difference between the candidates was just over 13,000 votes - 0.2% - but the Supreme Election Council of Turkey cancelled the result because, according to the investigation, the work of the observers was not properly organised. Suddenly (or maybe not too much), Erdogan actively called for such a decision, arguing that the gap of 13,000 votes was too small for a final decision.

But the promised funny moment goes on. Re-elections were called, and in June 2019, Imamoglu won by an even larger margin than he had initially. That was when people really got to know him. The next stop was the position of mayor of Istanbul.

The beginning of the problems

The popularity of an out-of-system politician did not seem to fit into Erdogan's plans. In December 2022, a court in Istanbul sentenced him to two years and seven months in prison. And guess what for? For insulting the staff of the Turkish High Electoral Council. Yes, Imamoglu called them ‘idiots’. However, he was referring to those who cancelled the election results back in 2019. Yet, as it turned out, this act entails almost three years in prison. Even then, there were massive protests in support of the mayor of the capital, and he was able to appeal the court's decision.

But it is important to understand that the real reason for this legal farce was an attempt to ban Imamoglu from participating in the Turkish presidential election. By the way, he was planning to. And even polls showed results that were quite dangerous for Erdogan.

Getting closer to the present day

In November 2024, the president himself became involved in the fight. Erdogan sued Imamoglu for defamation because he allegedly tried to humiliate the president in public. By the way, it turns out that in Turkey you can be imprisoned for 4 years for this.

But it did not end there. Just recently, the Istanbul prosecutor's office initiated another investigation against the mayor, where he was accused of trying to influence the course of the investigation. And even that is not all. The day before his detention, Istanbul University announced that the mayor's university degree had been cancelled. Why? Just remember the American University where Imamoglu studied. The future mayor allegedly violated the procedure for transferring from one university to another.

Mass protests

The apotheosis was the accusation of bribery and collaboration with the Kurds, which is obviously punishable by a much more serious penalty than slandering the government and violations in university admissions. Of course, Imamoglu was arrested.

Mass protests began in Istanbul and beyond the city. The Guardian reported that on the evening of 21 March, 300,000 people took part in the protest in Istanbul. However, it is important to remember that the publication quoted the words of the mayor's supporters. In reality, the number may differ, but the protests are undoubtedly massive.

There have also been violent conflicts. Police officers have been using not only tear gas, but also water cannons and even rubber bullets to disrupt the demonstrations. On 21 March alone, police arrested 343 people for participating in the protests.

The current government explains its position quite simply:

‘We will not sympathise with those who try to disrupt public order, threaten peace and security, create chaos and organise provocations,’ the Minister of Interior said. Erdogan went further and said that the government ‘has no time for opposition performances’.

But was Imamoglu alone?

Of course, Turkey has more than one politically active citizen. Speaking of Imamoglu's team, since October last year, the police have arrested more than 50 members of the Republican People's Party. And on the day of Imamoglu's arrest, the police arrested 100 other politicians, journalists and activists. These were massive raids.

The Journalists' Union reported that on Monday, at least eight more journalists were detained at home. Interestingly, one of them was a photojournalist working for the French news agency Agence France-Presse.

How does the situation affect relations with the EU?

An important addition to the analysis of the protests in Turkey is the information and geopolitical background in which they are taking place. The fact is that due to the policy of the newly elected US President Donald Trump, who is moving away from Europe, EU countries are urgently looking for allies who will help improve the Union's defence capabilities. Recently, the European Parliament proposed the idea of joint defence projects between the EU and Turkey, which both sides seem to be interested in.

Erdogan even tried to link this to Turkey's EU accession negotiations, which would help stabilise the Turkish economy. And some European leaders even supported this idea. For example, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he would like to see Turkey become a member of the European Union.

Although it was a long way from any real results, the process was moving forward. And now, after the sensational arrests of the opposition, it is difficult to predict where the negotiations will go. European representatives have already condemned the suppression of the protests, although it is worth noting that they did so quite carefully, without cancelling the previously scheduled April talks. It seems that European countries are watching Erdogan's actions closely, and he should be more delicate if he expects further cooperation between the countries.

What do the United States think about the situation in Turkey?

A few days ago, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks in Washington with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. According to him, the US expressed concern over the arrests in Turkey. Yet, it is important to understand that Erdogan is now playing a very important role for the Trump team, and the US may even turn a blind eye to the mass protests.

Turkey is becoming an increasingly important stronghold against Iran in the Middle East, and it also remains a factor in stabilising Syria. In fact, this is exactly what Rubio said after his meeting with the Turkish minister.

Also, amid concerns about the reliability of purchases of American fighter jets, Trump and Erdogan agreed to return the country to the F-35 programme, and are even considering replacing Russian weapons in Turkey with American ones. There are suspicions that the US will not want to disrupt the deal even after the aggressive suppression of protests.

What happens next?

Although there are long court proceedings and many protests ahead, the current government is not wasting time. Billboards and other advertising campaigns featuring Imamoglu's image have begun to be removed in Istanbul. And even if he is acquitted again, the scenario of the last election will be repeated, when Imamoglu was not allowed to participate in it through an open trial.

As it often happens, everything is now in the hands of the protesters. Erdogan is a rather sophisticated and even professional politician. He knows how to play this game, benefiting from many situations. However, he has more and more problems inside the country every year.

So today, we think a lot depends on Imamoglu's fate. The current government rightly sees him as its main opponent, and the opposition understands that Imamoglu is now their most valuable figure. The head of the Republican People's Party, Özgür Özel, has already called the government's actions a ‘coup against the future president’.

‘I invite tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands and millions to take part in peaceful demonstrations, to express our democratic reaction and fulfil our constitutional rights,’ he added, suggesting that the opposition's plan at the moment is to try to save the situation through a protest movement.

If Erdogan manages to hold on until the protests weaken, the opposition will have to look for a new presidential contender, which is difficult to do in such a short time.

But Imamoglu's imprisonment, as Turkish history shows, is not always a sentence. After all, in 1997, the then-young Erdogan was also the mayor of Istanbul and was also arrested for allegedly inciting violence and hatred. The future president spent 120 days in prison. He had to resign as mayor and miss the parliamentary elections. However, four years later, Erdogan returned to politics and won the presidential race. Today, Imamoglu is following Erdogan's path in many ways. And yet, history has its own rather peculiar sense of humour.