Iran's Nuclear Programme: From the Creation to the Trump Nuclear Deal

President Hassan Rouhani visited the Bushehr nuclear power plant in January. Photo: Mohammad Berno/Iranian Presidency Office via AP

Our editorial team would like to take you back in time by looking at Iran's relations with the United States from a historical perspective. We will learn about how Iran began to develop its nuclear weapons altogether. We will also talk about the first nuclear deal, which took place in 2015, and what is happening now. And we will think about what the parties want to get out of the new deal. We hope it will be interesting. Enjoy your reading!

Photo: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

History. How did the Iranian nuclear programme begin?

When discussing the beginning of Iran's nuclear programme, it is difficult to ignore the date when the country began cooperation with the United States on the peaceful atom. On 5th of March in 1957 USA and Iran signed an agreement on the use of nuclear energy. The agreements include the supply of special equipment, training, the establishment of research centres and other things that help to study nuclear energy.

This was the date when full-fledged studies of the atom began in Iran, and it is interesting that it was the United States who helped Tehran develop nuclear technology. 

Thanks to the Americans, the country receives its first nuclear research centre. It is being built at the University of Tehran, where the first reactor is also being put into operation. 

It is worth noting that back then, Iran was very different from the country we know today. Instead of an ayatollah, it was ruled by a shah who was more opened to Western values, which allowed him to establish friendlier relations with America.

On 1st of July in 1968 Iran signes The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Iranian scientists and experts travel the world to gain experience, and the country plans to build more than 20 nuclear reactors.  

However, the Islamic Revolution appeared on the way to the objective. The new government spoiled relations with the West, and it became extremely difficult for the nuclear power industry, as well as other areas of the country, to develop. Tehran is looking for ways to continue its research and is even reaches an agreement with Pakistan to supply centrifuges. Of course, the Russians are also involved, publicly signing an agreement with Iran on the construction of a new nuclear power plant and cooperation in the use of nuclear energy.

The Bushehr nuclear power plant in southwestern Iran. AP Photo

Peaceful atom is not so peaceful after all

Later, in the public domain, some countries began to suspect and directly point out that Iran was working on a nuclear bomb. It all started with the United States, which saw suspicious activity at Iran's nuclear facility using satellite images. 

The permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany meet in Berlin. The United States lobbies for sanctions, but China and Russia oppose them. The Security Council signs a joint statement, the text of which had been proposed by the United Kingdom and France three weeks earlier.

Russia and China agree that the joint UN statement should give the IAEA the main role in resolving the Iranian crisis, and remove all threats of sanctions against Tehran. Iran is also required to stop uranium enrichment within a month and to provide access to nuclear-related sites. 

Iran does not cooperate well, repeatedly claiming that its programme is peaceful. Moreover, it emphasises that, for example, Israel, which allegedly has nuclear weapons, has not signed the non-proliferation treaty at all and is not bound by any obligations. This seems unfair to Tehran.

First nuclear deal

The Middle East is on fire. There are terrorist attacks and hostage-taking, and the United States is threatening to start a military operation. Iran fears military intervention, and the West does not want a full-scale war. After several rounds of negotiations, a nuclear deal finally emerges. 

On 14 July 2015, Iran, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, the United States and Germany sign an agreement on Iran's nuclear programme. They agree on joint control and monitoring of Iran's nuclear energy. The IAEA gains access to all nuclear facilities in the country for 15 years, provided that none of the objects is dismantled. The sanctions imposed by the US, the European Union and the UN Security Council are planned to be gradually lifted.

However, after a while, as you already know, Trump came to power in the US, publicly criticising the deal and intending to quit. Later, he does so, using information found by Israel that Tehran is allegedly violating the terms of the agreement.

What do we have now?

That's how we came to today's events. The second round of negotiations between the US and Iran has recently taken place . The parties are planning to renew the nuclear deal, but they do not know how yet.

Italian Foreign Ministry. Handout via REUTERS

The talks were attended by Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Presidential Special Representative for the Middle East Steve Witkoff. Interestingly, the parties were in different rooms and did not contact each other directly.

In the new round of negotiations, the American delegation will be headed by diplomat Michael Anton. Unlike Steve Witkoff, he has not stated a public position on the Iranian case, but he has been informing Europeans about the progress of the negotiations. The replacement of Vitkoff with Anton may indicate a gradual weakening of Vitkoff's position on the Iranian issue, and with it a change in the approach to solving the problem.

At the moment, there is not much information about a possible deal. As it usually happens in such meetings, negotiations are taking place behind closed doors. Some media outlets report that Iran is ready to accept some restrictions on uranium enrichment, but needs reliable guarantees that Donald Trump will not abandon the agreement again. 

What does the US side want?

Trump has long claimed that he would be able to make a better deal than his predecessors. He has said this so many times that now any problems in the process of concluding a deal will directly affect his political rating.

Resolving the Iranian crisis could help Trump save his image amid his failures to end the war in Ukraine. And for Trump, as we think, the image is crucial.

So, the US president's team will work diligently on the deal using all available methods. And Trump's favourite method, as we have all noticed, is pressure and demonstration of force. He has already warned that if Iran does not agree to a new deal, ‘there will be bombings’. 

What does the Iranian side want?

Tehran clearly does not want to bend under all this pressure. It remembers well how the United States had already cancelled the previous similar agreement in 2018, so now it insists on a guarantee that Washington, and especially Trump, will not break its word.  

Also, according to media reports, Iran completely refuses to discuss its missile programme. The ayatollahs understand that the forces are not equal, and they do not want to deprive themselves of military pressure.

Moreover, the Iranian leadership is still ready to make some compromises, but they do not say which ones. What is clear is why - Tehran really wants sanctions to be removed.

It has also recently been reported that Iran would like to hold consultations with Germany, Britain and France. These are the key parties to the 2015 nuclear deal, and their position also strongly influences whether the agreement will be renewed or altered. And given the nature of Tehran's relations with Washington, the Europeans are increasingly looking like good candidates for mediating between the two countries.

In addition, initiating a dialogue with European countries will help Tehran look diplomatically active and avoid international isolation.

What does the russian side want?

Yes, the Russians are also involved in the negotiations. In fact, the role of mediator has historically been very important to them. Even before the first nuclear deal, Russia had a ‘brilliant’ plan to resolve the conflict. The idea of the Russian side was to move Iran's uranium enrichment facilities to Russian territory and produce uranium there together. Of course, Tehran refused. 

Now, Russia continues to play the role of a successful negotiator, offering the United States its services in concluding a deal with Iran, hoping to gain benefits regarding the Ukrainian issue. Moreover, Putin is rather ‘selling air’ because he has no real levers and ways to resolve the conflict. It's hard to say why Trump's team has a different opinion, but they have been caught repeatedly in a biased, positive attitude towards the Russian government.

What can Ukraine do about it?

Although all these events are taking place far from our country, they can have a major impact on the war and our position in the negotiations.

In general, if the deal is successful, it could lead to the cancellation of sanctions against Iran, allowing Tehran to return to the global oil market. An increase in oil supply could lower global energy prices. As you know, Russia's budget is heavily dependent on oil exports, a drop in prices would weaken its economy. Also, a possible deal could normalise Iran's relations with the West, which Moscow would definitely not want.

There is also a small hope that the United States will finally realise during the negotiations that Russia is only creating the impression of its importance in the deal. The Russians are very keen to get a deal on Ukraine, but if a deal is concluded without a significant role for Russia, it will deprive it of the opportunity to claim any benefits in the regulation of the war in Ukraine.

Regardless of the outcome of the negotiations with Iran, our unfortunate neighbour is not going anywhere. There is a lot of military, diplomatic and economic work to be done, but we encourage you to remember that in geopolitics, all processes are connected, and even the outcome of a deal in the Middle East can affect the outcome of the war in Ukraine.