The New Caledonian Gambit: If a country is not interested in geopolitics, then geopolitics will certainly be interested in this country.
* Moscovia is the historically accurate name of the Russian Federation
A state of emergency has been declared in the French overseas territory of New Caledonia. French special forces and the military were sent to stabilise the situation. The reasons for the local protests are a slightly different topic, the reasons are real, and the course of events is interesting to analyse, but we will talk about the geopolitical dimension of these events. The archipelago of small islands is where the interests of a number of countries clash: France, Azerbaijan, Moscovia and China.
New Caledonia is a zone of French influence and a strategic territory for Paris. France's partnerships in Africa were destroyed by the actions of the Moscow-based Wagner (a group of international terrorists) and China's growing influence on the continent. The loss of influence over overseas territories would mark a complete collapse of France's system of influence.
Although we are deeply opposed to the intellectual relic of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, when the political map of the world is divided into «zones of influence», we live where we live and decolonisation has eventually modernised into new forms: economic, political, territorial and overseas colonialism.
The protests for independence in N. Caledonia have a real and quite obvious basis, but we are interested in how other countries are trying to realise their own, often ‘imperialist’ interests.
French Internal Affairs Minister Darmanin claimed that the riots in N. Caledonia were provoked by «pro-Moscow Azerbaijan».
What is the matter? Why does Azerbaijan need this at all?
The fact is that by the end of the year, Armenia and Azerbaijan will finalise a peace agreement, and Baku is trying to transform the fact of victory in Nagorno-Karabakh into the most favourable points of the peace agreement for itself.
Armenia, under enormous pressure from Moscovia, Azerbaijan and Turkey, and in the status of a losing country, is trying to minimise the negative consequences for itself. France, on the other hand, acts as Armenia's main European ally and somehow strengthens its negotiating position.
Azerbaijan's goal is to force Paris to stop or reduce its support for Armenia in order to get as much as possible from Armenia on the paper of the peace agreement. In other words, Azerbaijan will privately offer France an exchange: «Baku stops contacts and support for independence movements in New Caledonia and French Polynesia, Paris stops or reduces its support for Armenia». So it turns out that Azerbaijan has put France in a terrible position.
But we propose to think about whether Azerbaijan is acting independently and why the phrase ‘pro-Moscow Azerbaijan’ is used in the French media.
Despite the fact that today's France is in a crisis of its international influence (let's call it that), it is still France, which has a decisive advantage over Azerbaijan economically and politically. Therefore, the actions of Azerbaijan, which are relatively open and publicly demonstrative, provoke questions: ‘How justified is the risk of such a confrontation with France for Azerbaijan? Is any potential point in the agreement with Armenia in the interests of Azerbaijan worth the French reaction and the accompanying consequences that will certainly follow?’
At the protests in New Caledonia, the flags of Azerbaijan and the inscriptions «Putin, the Kanaks (the local population) are happy to welcome you» are waving among the local population, as well as posters «President Putin, free our colonies».
Also, it is no secret that N. Caledonia has strategic nickel deposits that China has been trying to gain control over for a long time, and the easiest way to do this is to make N. Caledonia an island «independent» country, where France will not be able to block China's deals that it is trying to impose on local Kanak politicians.
Therefore, the interests of the parties are as follows:
Azerbaijan — in New Caledonia, it wants to get an instrument to further weaken Armenia's position, forcing Paris to renounce its support for Yerevan.
Moscovia — wants to divert Paris' attention from Ukraine by, ironically, escalating the escalation 5,000 km away, where France's strategic interests are now under threat.
China — wants to gain access to nickel ore deposits, and for this Beijing needs the «independence» of New Caledonia.
And now some food for thinking, dates and events:
13 March 2024 — Azerbaijani President Aliyev meets with Chinese Special Representative Wu Hongbo. Aliyev declares a ‘new dimension of relations between the two countries’.
22 April 2024 — talks between Putin and Aliyev.
23 April 2024 — Azerbaijani-Chinese scientific conference on cooperation, where the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister said: «Azerbaijani-Chinese relations will develop regardless of international pressure on these relations» (referring to France and the United States).
25 April 2024 — signing of a controversial ‘Memorandum of Cooperation’ between the Congress of New Caledonia (or rather, exclusively with representatives of the independence movement) and the National Assembly of Azerbaijan. This is a continuation of the Baku Initiative Group (BIG), which was launched in July 2023. Within the framework of this initiative and statements about the «fight against colonialism», Baku is hiding a direct intention to annoy Paris, as the list of «colonies» mainly includes French overseas territories, ignoring other countries that also have overseas territories and where there are respective independence movements and others, who also possess overseas territories and where independence movements are present as well.
On 1 May 2024, the Polynesian movement against France for independence, Tavini Huiraatira, also signed a memorandum with the Azerbaijani parliament.
The sharp intensification of relations in the Moscow-Baku-Beijing triangle coincides with Azerbaijan's attempt to openly and demonstratively build contacts with movements for the independence of France's overseas territories. Given that the EU is an important trading partner for Azerbaijan, and France's position in the EU is one of the leading ones, a logical question arises: «Does it make sense for Baku to risk its economic interests in Europe solely to annoy Paris in the hope that this will hypothetically weaken Armenia's position? And is Azerbaijan capable of doing this without some insurance, which is likely to be provided by Moscow and Beijing».
At the protests in New Caledonia, the flags of Azerbaijan and Muscovy are visible, as well as inscriptions on posters «Congratulations to Putin» and others: 