Elections in the Netherlands: What to Expect and How It Will Impact Support for Ukraine

*Muscovy — the historically correct name for the Muscovite Empire and the Russian Federation.

The Netherlands is a very important partner for Ukraine, not only in providing aircraft but also in terms of overall aid. The country ranks 5th in support for Ukraine, surpassing larger nations like France, Italy, and Spain in the volume of assistance provided.

In recent months, Rutte actively prepared for the conclusion of his tenure as Prime Minister. Before stepping down, Rutte provided several major aid packages to Ukraine and enshrined mid- and long-term legal support, ensuring continuity even if his ruling party loses the elections. Additionally, Rutte's strong stance on Ukraine positions him as a potential contender for the role of NATO Secretary-General.

Although Rutte's party took third place in the snap elections, Ukraine can still expect support from the Netherlands. However, concerns naturally arise in Kyiv regarding the victory of the Eurosceptic and right-wing populist party PVV, led by Wilders. Wilders opposes aid to Ukraine, has friendly ties with Orbán, who has tried to block Ukraine-related aid initiatives, and has elements in his background suggesting a tolerant attitude toward Moscow and Putin.

Thus, Kyiv faces a critical question: What happens next? Especially regarding key issues:

• Will Ukraine still receive F-16s from the Netherlands?

Yes. Several Dutch media outlets have already reported that these jets are not a "gift" but a "sale and mutual settlement" within collaborations involving other countries, including the United States. Therefore, the aircraft transfer comes not directly from the "national government of the Netherlands" but as part of a "coalition of states." These multilateral agreements have already involved investments from countries like Denmark, Sweden, the UK, and the US, among others. Hence, canceling the transfer of these aircraft would be a politically challenging move for any Dutch government. Moreover, some F-16s from the Netherlands have already been sent to Romania for training Ukrainian pilots.

• What about future military support for Ukraine?

 As mentioned, Rutte’s government approved several long-term aid packages before stepping down. While hypothetically, a new government could annul these commitments, it would be difficult to do so without the votes of Rutte's party. Since PVV would likely need Rutte’s party’s support to form a government, Wilders' capacity to implement his rhetoric might be significantly constrained.

• Will the Netherlands become more favorable toward Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine?

 Not necessarily. Election results show that PVV, a pro-Moscow party, lacks sufficient seats to form a majority coalition. A coalition requires 76 seats, but PVV only holds 37. It is likely to ally with the Eurosceptic Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), which also opposes aid to Ukraine, adding 7 more seats. Even combined, this falls short of a majority.

 Interestingly, Rutte's VVD party has explicitly stated it will not join a coalition with PVV unless Wilders abandons certain controversial agenda points. VVD has made it clear that any new government must preserve support for Ukraine.

 Thus, Wilders faces a critical deficit in forming a coalition. Smaller parties would be needed in large numbers, but it is unlikely that many would agree to join forces with the controversial Wilders. The most plausible path for Wilders would involve forming a coalition with Rutte's party, which would necessitate a coalition agreement. In such a deal, Rutte's party could demand Wilders abandon key policies like exiting the EU or withdrawing support for Ukraine.

 Potential Scenarios:

1. A "Right-Wing Coalition" with VVD: Rutte’s party agrees to form a coalition with PVV, granting VVD the "golden share" to shape policy. This scenario is the most likely and would likely include support for Ukraine as part of the coalition agreement.

2. A Coalition Led by GLP-VDA (Greens-Left Alliance): If Wilders fails to form a coalition, the mandate could pass to GLP-VDA, which might collaborate with Rutte’s party. However, ideological differences between VVD and GLP-VDA make this scenario less probable. Even if they were to align, they would still struggle to secure enough seats for a majority.

3. New Elections: If no majority coalition can be formed, the country might face a prolonged parliamentary crisis and new elections.

 So it's worth the wait. The coalition formation process in the Netherlands will likely be lengthy. During this time, Rutte’s government will remain in office as a caretaker administration, ensuring continuity of support for Ukraine in the interim.