Facts that indicate Wagner's involvement in the Niger revolution. What is Wagner's African Belt and why a democratic Niger is critically important for Europe.
*Moscovia is the historically accurate name for the Moscow Empire and the Russian Federation.
1. Preparation.
On 26 July, the Nigerian president's Twitter account announced that the presidential guard under General Abdourahmane Tchiani had held an ‘anti-republican demonstration’ and had tried ‘in vain’ to enlist the support of other security forces.
On the same day, people with flags of Moscovia began to appear near the Nigerian parliament. Of course, this is not yet an indicator of Moscovia's involvement in the revolution, but the mobilisation of people against an inconvenient government is very similar to the hybrid strategies of Moscovia.
On 27 July, the Commonwealth of Officers for International Security channel, owned by the founder of the Moscow terrorist group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, began broadcasting Prigozhin's address saying that the military takeover in Niger is «the struggle of the Nigerian people against the colonisers» and that «the removal of the pro-French president is actually the independence of the people of Niger». A similar thesis was broadcast through other media in Africa loyal to Moscovia and Wagner.
2. Contacts between the rebels and Wagner.
The connection between the head of the Nigerian armed forces, Modi Salif, and the Mali junta's presidential guard, which is controlled, trained and equipped by a group of Moscow mercenaries called Wagner, is quite illustrative.
Prigozhin then directly offers «his services» to support the rebels in Niger. Investigations into Wagner in Africa show that the terrorist group already has its ‘capital’ in Bangui. The Moscow-based Wagner group uses a well-established hybrid strategy that has been successful in the Central African Republic, Sudan, and Mali: providing intelligence, military and technical support, and guarantees to one of the parties in an African state, provoking a coup and establishing a government loyal to Moscow.
After the coup, Wagner usually offers its additional «stabilization» services in exchange for remuneration, which includes money, mining rights for Moscow companies, and special loyalty to Putin from the supported African junta or dictators. Wagner's involvement in the coup does not mean direct physical participation in the capture of the duly elected president. Rather, Wagner's involvement often means provoking such events, providing arms, training and later joining the defence structures of the country where the coup took place and a government loyal to Moscow was established. «Wagner» is Putin's private army, which he uses for his own interests, where Moscow's official involvement is undesirable due to international image concerns or other consequences.
3. The situation with the comments of «official» Moscow and Prigozhin.
While Prigozhin supported the coup in Niger in the media and directly, the Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the coup. And here is the question: «Can the Wagner terrorist group, which is financed directly from the Kremlin and has a privileged position in the Kremlin, pursue a policy contrary to Putin's position?» — it seems unlikely.
Moreover, on the sidelines of the African Summit in Moscovia, Prigozhin was holding independent meetings with African leaders of Mali and Burkina Faso, where coups took place. These meetings cannot but be coordinated with the Kremlin's position.
The actions of Prigozhin and the Kremlin fit into the hybrid strategy that Moscovia has been implementing for decades: sending mercenaries or military personnel while constantly denying that Moscovia is directly involved in bloody events.
4. Statements by the rebels.
It is enough to monitor African media that loyally covers Moscovia's actions and find the following:
A protester, Hama Maiga, added: «We want them to improve ties of cooperation with Mali and Burkina Faso, with whom we have a common enemy to fight the terrorism that is raging in the Sahel».
And the «common enemy» is not only extreme Islamists, who, by the way, have great support among the poorest population, but also «Western countries». First of all, the rebels in Niger consider France to be the enemy, and it is not surprising that they are targeting Mali and Burkina Faso, where Wagner instructors and mercenary forces are based.
5. Interests.
Baumgartner, an African analyst at Dragonfly, a security and political risk consultancy, said that Wagner's main motive in Niger may be the uranium that is mined there. It is this type of uranium that Moscovia is looking for for its «uranium expansion». This includes cooperation with Iran, where Moscow is helping Tehran to accelerate uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons development.
6. Trends.
Take a map of Africa and look at the «Wagner movement's» «directorate» from Mali and Burkina Faso on the one hand, and the CAR-Sudan-Eritrea on the other. All of these countries have one thing in common - government coups and the presence of Wagner, which after the coups get access to local resources, and Moscovia gets loyal and dependent governments in Africa. Now Niger, and the Wagner network is already being built in Chad and Cameroon. If you put it all on a map, you will see the so-called Wagner Belt.
Yes, there is no direct evidence yet. But this evidence will appear in Niger over time. The first proof will be the intensification of relations between the junta and the Kremlin, military instructors from Wagner, exclusive rights for Moscow to uranium mining, and so on. Similarly, evidence of Wagner's involvement in the coups in the Central African Republic or Mali emerged over time and after targeted investigations. Hiding and denying involvement is one of the components of hybrid operations that the Kremlin has been conducting around the world for decades.
So what is the importance of the coup in Niger for Europe's interests?
Uranium from Niger is essential for the EU because it is the leading uranium. Niger is the leading supplier of uranium to the European Union. According to the Euroatom Supply Agency, in 2021, EU utilities purchased 2905 tonnes of uranium produced in Niger. This is more than 24% of EU uranium imports. France depends on Nigerian uranium by 35-40%. Switching to a different uranium product would involve enormous costs and, most importantly, time. It is likely that increasing Europe's dependence on Moscow uranium and gaining access to uranium themselves is the goal of the support for the military coup in Niger by Moscow mercenaries controlled from the Kremlin.