Moscovia's attempt to test the seriousness of the sanctions

*Moscovia is the historical and correct name of the Russian Federation.

New sanctions from the EU. Moscovia's attempt to test the seriousness of the sanctions. Tucker Carlson helps Putin create new threats. In fact, these fragments of events are closely connected.

The maximum effect of the pressure from the latest US sanctions will be felt in mid-March, as the sanctions are phased in and are due to finally take effect on 15 March.

As part of these expectations, Asian buyers of Moscow's oil are beginning to look for and book alternatives in the Arab, Kazakh and African oil markets, as reported by Bloomberg.

If the trend continues, and this depends directly on the ability of the US to monitor compliance with the sanctions already imposed by the previous administration, Moscow's oil exports (to China and India) could shrink by a third after March.

In recent days, a number of insider publications have begun to report on the preparation of a certain provocation by Moscovia.

The provocation is as follows: to unload ‘sanctioned oil’ on sanctioned tankers to demonstrate to Indian and Chinese buyers that the new US administration will not monitor compliance with the sanctions imposed in the last weeks of Biden's term, and therefore Chinese and Indian buyers can book oil supplies from Moscovia for March and April without any further delay.

 It is critical for Moscow to assure Indian and Chinese buyers before they switch to medium-term cooperation with other suppliers.

These rumours of an attempted provocation are confirmed by the fact that on the night of 28-29 January, the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, promptly called US Secretary of State Mark Rubio. The US Department of State is the agency whose responsibility is to monitor compliance with primary and secondary sanctions and to request the extension of sanctions against violators.

Following the conversation, Rubio confirmed to Kallas that maximum sanctions pressure on Moscow would be maintained. This news was promptly published and became a signal to Indian and Chinese buyers who could potentially agree to Moscow's risky ‘experiment’.

Next, the EU is preparing a large and effective sanctions package for agriculture, energy and the shadow fleet of Moscovia, which it plans to adopt in the coming winter. If it is approved, in combination with the full implementation of US sanctions, Moscovia may face a certain ‘shock’ in oil and gas revenues in late March-April, which will certainly affect Moscow's ability to keep funding the war.

However, it should be borne in mind that due to the position of Hungary and Slovakia, European sanctions will be only partially adopted or blocked at first.

The agreed sanctions will be those that do not require supermajority. According to reports from Brussels, this refers to the implementation of additional duties on Moscow agricultural products and fertilisers. As for the energy sector (shadow fleet and LNG), the sanctions require unanimity and are likely to be vetoed by Orban and Fico. Therefore, their consideration will be postponed until March.

Yet, as part of the strategy to put maximum sanctions pressure on Moscovia, this is not critical. If the EU sanctions on the energy sector of Moscovia are finally agreed upon in March, they will have a ‘overlapping’ effect with the US sanctions, making it impossible for Moscow to adapt to them as it has done in the last few times.

The possibility of the EU approving energy sanctions in March will depend on three factors

• 1. On maximum internal and external pressure on the Fico government in Slovakia, which is now taking a pro-Moscow position because of the need to force Ukraine to transport Moscow's gas, which Moscow later will use to fund its invasive war.

• 2. On what kind of government will be formed in Germany and whether parties loyal to Moscow will have a ‘blocking minority’.

• 3. And as a consequence of the first two points, it is an opportunity to increase pressure on Hungary, as it was in all previous times when it was necessary to make unanimous decisions.

It is the third point that will be decisive, but if the first two points are implemented, the third point may become quite possible because of the US position. Strategically, oil and gas sanctions against Moscovia are beneficial for the Americans, as it frees the European market from Moscow's energy sources for American energy campaigns

Also important is the position of Polish Prime Minister Tusk, who represents Poland as the EU presidency and seems intent on putting political pressure on Budapest to adopt the necessary sanctions.

Aware of the potential risk to itself, Moscovia is choosing a series of information operations as one of the methods to prevent the introduction of new sanctions. Moscow is trying to find a new threat format to at least force European countries to postpone their decisions in order to study the risks further.

After the loss of the tool of ‘nuclear blackmail and escalation threats’, Moscow's failed information operation with the Oreshnik system, which has been forgotten by everyone, even Kremlin itself, thanks to Tucker Carlson, an American propagandist for Moscow, Moscovia is launching a new round of disinformation through relevant posts.

The media field is saturated with information about the ‘alleged plan to kill Putin’ and, as a result, Moscow's response. Also changed.

The goal is to create information conditions of ‘uncertainty’ and ‘the need to weigh decisions’ in the EU in order to reduce the strictness of sanctions, which from the end of March may have a cumulative effect with the US sanctions adopted by the Biden administration at the end of the presidential term.