Peter Thiel. How can Ukraine influence American elites?

In addition to his many companies and unusual ideological beliefs, American billionaire Peter Thiel is also known for creating the current US Vice President J.D. Vance, who is already predicted to be the next president.

Ukraine will need the United States as an ally in the future. To do so, Ukraine must secure the commitment of American elites. Peter Thiel's influence on American politics is growing. So how can Ukraine turn the billionaire on its side, and is he interested in doing so?

How does Peter Thiel think?

Peter Thiel's political views may seem both strange and typical, depending on your perspective. He is often referred to as a conservative libertarian. This definition in itself may seem syncretic, i.e., combining things that usually do not go well together. In addition, as an openly gay man, Peter Thiel strongly opposes woke ideology, gay pride, and identity politics in general, supporting Republican values. Since Peter Thiel is a rather atypical figure, let's take a closer look at where his views come from.

As a student, Peter Thiel founded a conservative newspaper and became famous for his libertarian ideas. He rejected not only the idea of the state, but also the idea of democracy, considering it a corrupt, bureaucratic form of oppression of talented people. In 2009, Thiel said directly: “I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible.” For Thiel, freedom is the ability to create something new without looking back at dogmas.

However, over time, his views began to change significantly and become filled with admiration for “strong leaders” who can bring order and guarantee freedom. He increasingly refers to America's needs, national interests, and “enemies.” He named the following as such “enemies” at a 2019 conference: China, Google, and universities. China is a natural technological enemy, Google is a traitor because of its cooperation with China, and Thiel proposed radical action against the company, while universities are the enemy because of the “virus of cultural Marxism” and student debt. In general, during his speech, he promoted raising tariffs, forcing universities to repay student debts, and strengthening state control for the sake of the nation. There were no traditional libertarian words about reducing government spending or the free market. Such changes in ideology reveal Thiel's ideological pessimism. He believes that Western civilization has begun to stagnate and is no longer trying to achieve anything great. To solve this, a strong leader, even a dictator, is needed who can build a new system. In other words, for him, the state has a goal — to see the future. For Thiel, this future is exclusively technological.

Thiel admires the generation of the 1950s, which saw technological progress as its goal. Flying to the moon, space, technologies that changed the world — and this process was actively stimulated by the state. For Thiel, this concept is ideal. For him, the state has a duty to support talented people and develop technologies that are in the interest of the entire nation. Many try to pack Thiel's political views into a single system, calling him, for example, a techno-fascist, techno-nationalist, technocrat-utilitarian, or supporter of libertarian dictatorship. Despite the difference in the names of such an ideological approach, it is worth noting the main thing: the essence of Peter Thiel's ideology is pessimism about our existence and utopianism about the future. At the same time, traditional institutions, like the state, can afford to be dictatorial or cruel, but they must be effective. The question of identity, however, is only a factor that distracts society from real problems. “When I was a child, there was a big debate about how to defeat the Soviet Union. And we won. Now we see the big debate about who uses which toilet," said Thiel.

At the same time, Peter Thiel is allergic to bureaucracy. In his book “Zero to One”, he writes on page 12: “Bureaucratic hierarchies move slowly, entrenched interests avoid risk. In the most dysfunctional organizations, imitation of work — demonstration of busyness — becomes a better career strategy than actual work.” And then he jokingly adds: “If this describes your company, you should quit immediately.” He does not accept protracted, bureaucratic cases, quickly losing interest in them. The main theme of his book is the philosophy that he needs a breakthrough, not a long movement, even in the right direction. He prefers to invest in small companies where actions and decisions are made instantly, rather than large corporations. He also introduces Thiel's law: “A start-up that is poorly constructed from the outset cannot be fixed.”

Peter Thiel was influenced by several philosophers. First and foremost, René Girard. Girard's main philosophical idea is “mimesis.” This is a process whereby people copy each other's behaviour and desires, which leads to competition and the emergence of a “scapegoat,” and only a special leader can overcome this. If we simplify this concept to a simple everyday example, it sounds like this: don't repeat someone else's success — create your own; don't follow the mood of the masses — think for yourself; don't look for a scapegoat — create new ideas.

Peter Thiel is also a supporter of the ideas of Carl Schmitt and Friedrich Nietzsche. From the first, he took the idea of a strong leader who can make decisions when democracy is paralyzed, and from the second, the general idea of a “superhuman” who does not obey the moral rules of the masses but is shaping his own values.

These philosophers have a certain inclination toward elitism, which Thiel likes. He believes that the world is made by individual geniuses who were born with talent, and that they are the ones who should build the state and become the centre of society.

For Thiel, the world is an empty glass that can only be filled through technological leaps and innovations. At the same time, democracy, “woke” identities, and bureaucracy are holes in the glass through which resources are lost. The only option is to “pour water under pressure,” meaning through a strong state.

Political investments (his potential influence on the future of American politics)

Having understood Thiel's ideological portrait, we need to find out who he supported in politics. And although everything seems quite obvious, the devil is in the details. Peter Thiel is one of the biggest sponsors of candidates at various levels.

Back in 2016, Thiel raised $1.25 million for Donald Trump's campaign. He actively supported Trump, and after his victory, he became an advisor and member of the executive committee in the president's transition team. At the same time, he lobbied for his interests and influenced hiring decisions. His advisors advanced and helped shape the policies of the FDA (the federal agency that regulates drugs, food, etc.), the NSC (an advisory body on national security issues), and worked in the Department of Defence and the Department of Finance. In fact, Thiel created a kind of shadow network of influence. According to Politico, he was even jokingly called the “shadow president.” This was the billionaire's first major step in influencing politics. Later, Thiel and Trump split up due to differences in ideology.

Peter Thiel began to finance the younger generation, investing money and ideas in them. The Vance-Masters project began. Thiel hired J.D. Vance to his investment fund in 2017 and later financed the creation of Narya Capital in Ohio, co-founded by Vance, which became part of a major campaign to “promote” Vance before his political career. Blake Masters is a long-time employee of Thiel, whom he also groomed for politics. In 2022, both were preparing for Senate elections: Vance in Ohio and Masters in Arizona. Thiel made an incredible $13.5 million in contributions for Protect Ohio Values for Vance and $10 million for Saving Arizona PAC for Masters. Such serious funding immediately made Vance and Masters serious candidates, despite their lack of political experience.

JD Vance won in Ohio in 2022 and became a member of the Senate. Also, importantly, shortly before that, Thiel arranged a personal meeting between Vance and Trump. In fact, the billionaire brought together politicians who had previously been in conflict with each other. Soon, Vance became one of the leading candidates for the vice presidency.

Blake Masters was remembered for his criticism of China, monopolists, the “liberal establishment,” and “corrupt elites.” He largely articulated Thiel’s views, but lost to the current Democratic senator.

In addition, the billionaire helped various politicians, like Josh Hawley during his campaign for Missouri Attorney General in 2016 and for the Senate in 2018, Harriet Hageman in 2022, and others who did not have as much support.

Directly funding politicians' campaigns isn't the only thing the billionaire does. In fact, his network of influence is way broader. The key institution here is the Thiel Foundation, which gives scholarships to talented people who dropped out of school to start startups. The foundation is generally involved in educational and atypical projects, whose graduates sometimes become allies in politics. Thiel finances the Claremont Institute, which is one of the conservative think tanks. He himself is a regular speaker at NatCon (National Conservatism), organized by the Edmund Burke Foundation, to which Thiel has also donated money. Over the years, he has spoken there with Vance, Gowley, and Masters, discussing a common strategy. He also funded projects of the Federalist Society, an association of conservative lawyers, and promoted conservative judges through Leonard Leo. It is noted that he supported the network of the organization that helped Trump appoint a record number of judges. It is interesting to note that although Thiel is not officially a donor to Project 2025, he has deep ties to the organizations and people who created this initiative. Project 2025 is essentially a “cheat sheet” for a Republican president. It is a ready-made action plan, a personnel database, an ideological framework — everything a president needs to do as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Here we should mention Palantir Technologies, a company that analyzes large databases, co-founded by Thiel. The company actively cooperates with the US government, providing platforms for intelligence, border control, etc. During Trump's presidency, the company received contracts and implemented its systems, partly thanks to Thiel's lobbying during the transition period. This combines ideological-technocratic and commercial ideas. The company not only generates profit but also strengthens the state apparatus by collecting and processing large amounts of data, where Palantir is a key player.

Thiel actively finances media resources. He contributed to the financing of Hulk Hogan's lawsuit against the tabloid Gawker, which led to the publication's bankruptcy in 2016. This can be seen as Thiel's revenge on the liberal press that criticized him. But more importantly, he invested in the Rumble platform (an analogue of YouTube, popular in far-right circles) and indirectly contributed to the development of Substack, where independent journalists and right-wing commentators moved.

In 2023, there were some changes in Thiel's rhetoric. He announced his departure from active political funding, acknowledging his disappointment with Trump. “It turned out to be even crazier and more dangerous than I thought,” - Thiel summed up. In 2024, he admitted that Trump personally called him asking for $10 million for his campaign, but Thiel refused. According to him, Trump then called Thiel a “fucking scumbag” in a conversation with Masters. These statements demonstrated the split between Trump and Thiel.

Thiel’s network of influence is truly impressive. It is difficult to assess it from a financial point of view, but the real value of the entire network of influence may have reached more than $100 million in the last 5-6 years alone. At the same time, the entire network of influence, like Palantir, venture funds, companies, platforms — all of this is designed for long-term investment in a political and commercial sense. Despite a certain departure from direct financing and conflict with Trump, Peter Thiel remains an ideological mentor within America, who has shown that he can promote transformation in the American conservative movement, providing resources, new faces, and ideas.

Peter Thiel and Ukraine

After 2022, Ukraine became one of the world's leading arms importers. Thiel's company, Palantir Technologies, which he co-founded, specializes in creating, researching, and interacting with large databases in the defence sector. In 2022, the company opened its office in Kyiv. The company's CEO, Alex Karp, became the first head of a Western corporation to visit Ukraine after the start of the full-scale invasion. Contracts with Palantir involved the Ministry of Digital Transformation, the Ministry of Economy, and mainly the defence sector. The Ukrainian experience was incredible for the company.

Karp himself assures that: “Palantir is responsible for most of the targeting in Ukraine,” referring to artillery, tanks, satellite data processing, intelligence, and even social networks. It is also actively involved in cooperation with the government in the field of humanitarian demining—AI systems are used to analyze maps of minefields, data on soil, infrastructure, and recommendations are made regarding the best method for clearing a particular area. The company provided its technologies at a preferential price, understanding the value of gaining experience in real combat conditions, the price of specialists they can attract in Ukraine, and the advertising they do. Soon, Palantir signed a £75 million deal with the UK Ministry of Defence.

In addition, Peter Thiel is an investor in Clearview AI, which is engaged in facial recognition. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence used this company's software to identify Russian soldiers, expose saboteurs, and check people's identities. According to the company's CEOї, Clearview AI's database contains over two billion images from Russian social networks and allows Ukrainian specialists to identify Russian military personnel faster than through fingerprints.

Thiel also invested in Quantum-Systems, which supplies drones to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In total, the company raised $200 million to develop intelligence drones and opened production centres in Ukraine. Peter Thiel and Sequoia Capital also invested in Neros Technology, which makes cheap strike UAVs, helping the company start production in Los Angeles and set up a presence in Ukraine to get feedback from the battlefield.

All these investments were made in early 2022-2023. Ukraine was in the billionaire's sights, but his personal interest in Ukrainian affairs did not become long-term.

Why didn't Thiel's interest in Ukraine turn into long-term cooperation?

• First, the reason for the cooling off on extra investments could be that the war is moving into a static phase. At the end of 2023, there was active discussion about finding ways to end the conflict and the failure of European policy towards Ukraine. Thiel himself did not comment on this, but he does not accept protracted and unpromising projects, which could have led to a reluctance to invest additional resources.

• Second, a change in political priorities. Thiel refrained from donating in 2024, focusing his attention on artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, and business investments, apparently disappointed in the ideological orientation of the Republican Party. In addition, Thiel sees China as the main enemy of the US, and for him, excessive interference in European affairs is a waste of necessary resources. Thus, this could have pushed Thiel away from Ukrainian issues after the first years of full-scale war.

• Third, the commercial component. It should be noted that the investments were successful from a business perspective. New markets were opened, new specialists were found, and valuable experience was gained. From this point of view, the company's mission in Ukraine was accomplished, and the rest is up to the government. The private sector can expect new contracts for reconstruction or defense if they are paid for by Ukraine's partners, but Thiel's direct control in this matter is no longer necessary.

• Fourth, the ideological component. For Thiel, Ukraine is not a model of good governance. And here, all factors play against Ukraine, as Peter Thiel is a well-known critic of democracy, and his like-minded colleagues are not particularly concerned with defending democracy from abroad. For him, there is no ideological value in the messianism of democracy. In addition, the Ukrainian government often proves to be ineffective, and diplomatic and domestic failures make the country unattractive for investment.

Opportunities for Ukraine

The first aspect is investment in high-tech industries. Thiel is a unique investor: he does not seek cheap labor, but rather supports promising ideas. He tends to invest in high-risk assets. And investing in Ukraine, due to security concerns, is primarily a high-risk investment.

His finances act as a signal: where he invests, the largest Silicon Valley funds gather. His support for Facebook, Palantir, SpaceX, and Anduril shows how one person can open doors to new financial and technological horizons.

The second aspect is that in the coming decade, Thiel will determine the policy of the Republican Party and, most likely, the United States, including through his influence on a number of politicians such as Vance.

The third aspect is that although most of Thiel's projects are commercially oriented, his personal motivation for action often lies in the “ideological realm.” And so, where Ukraine cannot offer high profits compared to someone else, it can offer an “idea.” Thiel is one of those people whose dominant motive is the “idea” rather than the level of earnings. This is beneficial to Ukraine in certain situations. Understand how he thinks, and you will find an approach. Give him an idea, and he will back it up with investments (if the idea interests him, he may finance it at a commercial loss to himself).

What can interest Thiel?

Ukraine already has a foundation that is comparable to Thiel's values: rapid digitalization, the Dia app, the Dia.City legal regime, the rapid development of start-ups during the war, and the first export-oriented defence companies. But it has not been proven to Thiel that this is outside of state regulation. Thiel does not like bureaucracy. He likes horizontal connections between “chosen” individuals (consider his admiration for Nietzsche).

Therefore, contact with Thiel should not be established by the state of Ukraine, but by “chosen” individuals (with Ukrainian passports). Conventionally, it is not Fedorov as minister who should talk about Dia, but developers who are not connected to the state.

Then this could become the basis for a dialogue with Thiel about investments in technologies that not only bring profit, but also change the rules of the game.

To show that Ukraine, going through a crisis, is quickly entering a stage of “changing the rules of the game” — unlike many other countries, where there is not a high level of bureaucracy that will determine the future, but “autonomy,” “freedom,” and “smartphone control.” Game development in defence and education.

Next is defence. Thiel directly or through his funds finances advanced military developments: drones, artificial intelligence for combat analysis, neural networks, target detection systems, and cybersecurity. His company Palantir is already cooperating with Ukraine, and this is just the beginning.

Thiel is not afraid to invest in defence before it becomes mainstream. If we become not a testing ground for him, but a partner in creating technologies for victory, Ukraine will gain an incredible advantage.

Another important area is politics. Thiel is not just a businessman. He is one of the few billionaires who influences the formation of the new American elite. He supported Trump in 2016 and “introduced” J. D. Vance, who is now the vice president of the United States and may become president tomorrow. Through his protégés: Blake Masters, Vance, Josh Hawley — Thiel has integrated himself into the core of the new Republican project.

His investments in politics are not about campaigns, but about shaping a new right-wing philosophy where technology, sovereignty, power, and a certain mission prevail. If Ukraine wants to talk to the new Republicans not from the position of a supplicant, but as a partner, it needs to build relationships with those who have real influence, like Thiel.

Finally, ideology. Thiel does not think in short periods. He believes in breakthroughs, heroism, and the role of the individual in history. This is exactly the Ukraine we can show him: not as a victim of aggression, but as an example of a state building a new model of civilization on the ruins of the old world.

He is an elitist who believes that the world is changed by individuals, not systems. If we can present ourselves not as beggars, but as co-creators of a new era, we will gain an ally capable of providing not only resources, but also recognition. Therefore, Ukraine needs Thiel not only as an investor, but also as a symbol. Because others will follow him. If Ukraine claims a place in the club of those who determine the future, figures such as Thiel must be nearby.

What else could make Thiel interested in the short term?

Once we understand the benefits, we need to understand what we can offer him. If we talk about the commercial component, we have a number of major problems here. It is difficult to do business in Ukraine. To attract investments worth hundreds of millions of dollars, we need institutional stability, acceptable taxes, and an absence of bureaucracy and corruption. Ukraine lacks all of these things, and it will be extremely difficult to change this during the war. It is also necessary to change labour legislation, currency regulations, judicial protection for investors, and create a good mechanism for venture investments, i.e. expand the idea of Dia City and attract investment in this project. These are all long institutional processes, but they must be started in any case.

In the short term, Thiel can be interested in ‘ideology’ and ‘technology.’ How to organise it?

• Technology plus ideology. For example: creating a large forum in Lviv, the technological capital of Ukraine, where there is a powerful IT cluster. It is important that, since Peter Thiel is a major figure, the issue of inviting him should be dealt with at the highest level, probably even avoiding the involvement of the state altogether and trying to do so through well-known tech visionaries in Ukraine. A liberal technocrat who fights bureaucracy through technology would the best option. Fedorov fits this description, but the problem is his government ties.

However, Dia City could be expanded for this forum, making it not just a privilege but part of the legislation, allowing investors without ‘Ukrainian beneficiaries’ to enter, deepening the norms of English law, and opening a physical campus for the programme.

It is necessary to show in every way possible that Ukraine not only shares the vision of a technological future, but is trying to make it an integral part of the state. Technology must dissolve bureaucracy, the slogan of the event. And Thiel should not be a passive sponsor here, but a partner who can contribute not only financially, but also with his opinion (ideology). Don't ask for money — ask how to do better, and he will say ‘HOW’ and then, out of curiosity about the experiment, he will ‘finance’ it.

Thiel may also be interested in Monobank, specifically its vision. The American billionaire has often criticised long, bureaucratic and outdated banks, and Ukraine can offer a completely new concept, where an ideological transformation of finance is possible, which ideally involves a shift from institutional to networked, from closed to open, from state to engineering. Particularly, Thiel may be interested in Monobank's developments in the field of crypto investments, which were not launched due to the war. Access to investments in cryptocurrency and storing money in this way is Thiel's ideological vision.

This is, of course, a much bigger step towards freedom for the financial sector, which carries corresponding risks, but it is precisely such a ‘revolution’ in the heart of Europe that could make Thiel think about investing in Ukraine.

The new bank project should become not just an instrumental solution to the discomfort of bureaucracy, but an ideological and geopolitical tool. The cooperation of such a ‘new bank’ with PayPal could also become a commercial success.

• Technology plus collector. Although Thiel is a futuristic ideologist, he admires the aspirations of ‘past generations,’ which he recognises as being of higher quality than technological achievements: colonies on the Moon, flights to Mars, space travel.

Therefore, he treats the achievements and ideas of the past in the field of futurology and technology just as a collector would. Providing access to the Soviet archives of Pivdenmash on spacecraft and plans (to awaken the collector's interest) plus the potential for resuming development (the existing base and the possibility of developing technologies on the existing base in Dnipro) could have an effect. Where he is restricted by strict legislation in the United States, in Ukraine he should find freedom to dream. But for this to happen, Thiel must believe that Pivdenmash's operating will be ‘autonomous’ and ‘deregulated’.

• Ideology. From an ideological point of view, we can also interest Thiel. Ukraine is one of those European countries that is trying to attract big technology to reduce bureaucracy and is actively developing in this area. Here we need to focus on Estonia, which, by the way, received investment from Thiel for digitalisation, and we need to deepen the idea of the digital world.

Here, we need to widely publish the image of Ukraine as a country that has chosen a strategic path – the creation, expansion and use of technologies. Of course, in order to attract investors, it is necessary to hold meetings, personal conversations, create forums where such people as Peter Thiel can be invited.

It is necessary to communicate with the diaspora abroad and build bridges. For Ukraine, this could be Max Levchin, an obvious bridge, a Ukrainian, co-founder and chief engineer of PayPal.

We need to hold a large forum that will be coloured not by party, politics or economics, but by ideology. We need to present Ukraine as a European country that shares Thiel's visionary perspective and, importantly, can influence European opinion. Lviv, with its hotels, university venues and the possibility of renting large halls, would be perfect. The forum should be based on NatCon, a concept familiar to Thiel.

How to catch Thiel?

To “catch” Thiel, you need to surround him with a familiar atmosphere, and not just invite him as a guest, but let him open the forum and become its co-author. Of course, this requires a lot of diplomatic and logistical work, but the point is to show that Ukraine is one of the leading countries in Europe with a strong idea and opportunities.

To sum up, a grand strategy is needed. It is impossible to attract large amounts of money and investment without real work to draw attention to oneself. This should be a joint project, which may include ‘hunting’ for specific investors, but first and foremost, it should touch upon the transformation of the state from within.

As for real actions, they must be bright, big and involve Thiel not just as a guest, but as a co-author and ideologist. We need to involve people surrounding him and his ideas to make it happen.

The analytical article was prepared by Yehor Yarosh, an expert on U.S. policy, exclusively for Resurgam.