The deck is stacked: it all started with Munich, and it should end with Munich. The only question is: how and in whose direction?

Michaela Stache (AFP)

At the Munich Conference in 2007, war criminal Putin continued his 2005 speech about the unjust world and the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest geopolitical ‘tragedy’ of the last century. This statement apparently included both Putin's personal vision and his future goals. That speech, which the Western world did not perceive as a threat, began Putin's movement to ‘restore the Soviet Union’.

On 15 February 2025, the Munich Security Conference will begin a new session of discussions. But the main thing is not the discussions, but the necessary decisions that may or may not be formed now.

Depending on what is formed, this will determine the future format not only of Ukraine's future, but also of Europe and the United States. It will also decide what parallels will be drawn in future history: either to the Tehran Conference of 1943 or to the Yalta Conference of 1945.

The game has begun... The figures have made their first steps.

There are two ‘zones’ in which preparatory non-public battles are taking place:

The first zone is an attempt to introduce a complete ban (blockade) of the Moscovia's shadow fleet in the Baltic.

This idea is being promoted by the Scandinavian and Baltic countries. Part of the idea was most likely deliberately made public through the Politico article to prevent its implementation.

The idea being promoted by the Baltic states is simple: to block the shadow fleet (tankers) in the Baltic, thereby instantly cutting off a significant percentage of oil exports, which Moscovia uses to supply its own military economy.

But to do so, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries need two components: a dominant number of countries in favour and a corresponding collective decision by the EU.

If the idea is supported by the majority of countries, it will be possible to put collective pressure on Hungary, which will certainly block any sanctions against Moscovia.

Denmark, Sweden, and Finland have taken the first steps: from relevant statements, power outages, and negotiations to a targeted media focus on the actions that Moscow has taken as part of its hybrid war against the Baltic Sea countries (breaking cables, violating airspace, etc.). The goal is to demonstrate that Moscow is already at war against NATO countries. Even though it is not a war of direct confrontation, it is a hybrid war.

Moscow has also taken its own steps: it has launched an information campaign on de-escalation in the Baltic, denying any involvement, emphasising accidents and manipulating headlines about ‘breaks’ (actually repairs) of Rostelecom cables.

The goal of this information campaign is to create the image that there was no ‘sabotage’, that Moscow is not waging hyrid wars, and that it is all due to the ‘Russophobia’ of the Scandinavian and Baltic countries. At the same time, Moscow is promoting the manipulation through the Western media, where one accidental cable break near Norway is being imposed on all four other incidents of sabotage.

The ultimate goal is to weaken the arguments of the Baltic and Scandinavian countries to other EU members that ‘tough sanctions on Moscovia's shadowy tanker fleet in the Baltic’ will be the answer to Moscow's sabotage. To create an information situation where ‘everything is not so clear’. The logic is simple - to cast doubt on obvious cases of sabotage in order to leave countries with no arguments

The second zone is the continuation of US military support in the future.

The first step was taken by Ukraine when it offered Trump the option of ‘rare metals for the US' last year through Lindsey Graham. And it seems to be the only effective mechanism that can, on the one hand, save Trump's face, as he can sell his change of mind and promises to his voters as a good deal, as the US will receive funds and resources, and on the other hand, Ukraine will be able to get a number of necessary solutions to continue to drain Moscow and build a stronger negotiating position.

And on this front, the first battle was fought

Tucker Carlson inexplicably (and for whatever reason) promoted the Moscow's narrative that half of the US aid was allegedly sold by Ukraine to Mexican drug cartels. It was an obvious manipulation, where Tucker connected Ukraine with the most media-intensive problem in the US - migrants and cartels. But why now? The answer came in a few hours. The answer was which initiative Tucker Carlson was trying to destroy.

It became known that Republican Joe Wilson had registered a bill in Congress. The essence of the bill is to ‘give Trump the right to transfer victorious weapons to Ukraine in the form of a loan or a land-lease’.

The purpose of this bill — to protect Trump from possible consequences if these weapons reduce US defence capabilities or make it necessary to ignore laws protecting critical technologies.

Of course, without a team from the White House, Speaker Johnson will not raise this question for a vote. And whether there will be such a team - it will be decided during the meetings this week.

Therefore, Tucker, as one of the lobbyists for Moscovia, lovers of Moscow supermarkets, and a representative of the relevant Kermit-loyal wing in the White House, simply wanted to interrupt the process and neutralise Wilson.

You have to understand the situation:

Trump has no coherent strategy on major strategic issues. Trump's policy is a set of chaotic and ad hoc decisions based on the president's vision at a particular moment. And this vision is shaped by his environment, which consists of various groups of influence: from those who are ready to support Europe and Ukraine to those who promote a reset of relations with Moscow by legalising annexations.

Meanwhile, the next battle will begin today with a meeting between Vice President Vance and European Commission President Ms Ursula von der Leyen.

And there will be a number of other interesting events before 15 February, which we will discuss as they happen.

The battle for Europe's future continues...