Crisis in the Japanese government. Who will be the successor to resigning Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba?

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Japan has shown an incredible level of compassion and support for Ukraine. Tokyo's assistance amounted to approximately $12 billion, most of which was directed towards humanitarian and financial aid and grants for vital areas such as energy infrastructure, social services and financial stability, as Japan is unable to provide military assistance due to the specifics of its legislation.

The Liberal Democratic Party loses its majority in both houses

The current Prime Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, became president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in September last year. At that time, his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, refused to run for re-election due to low ratings and corruption scandals related to ‘dirty’ funds collected by party deputies and not reported to the relevant authorities. This scandal caused tectonic shifts within the party, as it led to the elimination of most of the powerful internal factions that influenced the process of electing the party leader.

Ishiba's biggest advantage was that he did not belong to any of the factions and enjoyed support among unaffiliated voters, although not among his party colleagues. Ishiba became the new LDP president when he defeated his long-time rival in the final round - Sanae Takaichi, protégé of the dead Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

After being elected prime minister, Ishiba immediately dissolved the lower house of parliament and called early elections, but faced one problem. His cabinet's approval rating on the eve of the election was 41.4%, meanwhile the disapproval rating was 40.4%. Ishiba's lack of a honeymoon period was primarily due to the failures of his predecessors, Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida, who started their work with support in the region of 60% but ended up with 25% due to scandals related to the party, so Ishiba could no longer count on similar trust. Most voters were against early parliamentary elections, and MPs who were involved in a corruption scandal continued to run for the party, and the Japanese people saw this.

For these reasons, it was no surprise that the LDP lost its majority in the House of Representatives in these elections. The party lost 61 seat, and their coalition partner, the Buddhist Komeito party, lost eight seats, including party leader Keiichi Ishii, who had been a head of the party for only a month.

However, the opposition also failed to gain a firm foothold to end the LDP-Komeito coalition's rule. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) won 148 seats, 43 fewer than the scandal-ridden LDP. In addition, the opposition was not ideologically homogeneous: the left-wing communists, the centre-left JCP, the centre-right Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and the libertarians of Ishin no Kai would not have been able to form a government. Therefore, Ishiba managed to remain in the prime minister's chair, albeit with a minority government.

The main sensation of those elections was the result of the DPNP, which increased its presence by 17 seats. This showed that conservative voters were not going to vote for the constitutional democrats, but would rather look for a replacement for the LDP among the centre-right and right-wing parties

Results of the 2024 parliamentary elections

But the worst stab was the accusation of corruption against Ishiba. The Asahi Shinbun newspaper reported that after a dinner, Ishiba gave each of the 15 participants a gift certificate worth 100,000 yen (about $670), totalling 1.5 million yen, calling it a ‘souvenir’ and a gesture of gratitude for their hard work. Under Japanese law, such gifts can be considered bribes. Ishiba was elected in the hope that such stories would disappear, as the issue of corruption had become very sensitive for Japanese voters and had buried his predecessor's premiership. As a result, Ishiba's approval rating was hovering at 27% and below.

With this background, the LDP-Komeito government approached the elections to the House of Councillors, the upper house of parliament, in July this year. Only half of the upper house is renewed and it is not influential, but it can block the adoption of bills. In the elections, 74 seats were allocated by majority districts and 50 by party lists.

In these elections, the LDP-Komeito coalition also lost its majority, although it performed better than expected, and during the vote count, there was a belief that they would be able to retain their majority.

The biggest losers were the KDP and the Communists. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party failed to win a significant number of seats and even lost to the Sanseito party in proportional voting. The anti-immigrant Sanseito party and the centre-right DPDN won the most in the election.

Results of the 2025 Chamber of Councillors election

However, it is too early to say that Sanseito could become an alternative to the LDP, as voting for such parties looks more like a punishment for the LDP on the part of voters, and it is much easier to get into the upper house than the lower house. For example, the semi-comical Party Against NHK (the national broadcaster) won a seat in the House of Councillors but has never been able to enter the House of Representatives.

Probable successors to Prime Minister Ishiba

Ishiba's party colleagues want him to step down, and there are already two likely candidates to replace him: Sanae Takaichi and Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi.

Sanae Takaichi is the favourite of the conservative wing of the LDP, as well as among ordinary voters. Last year, she reached the final round of the LDP presidential election, where she lost to Ishiba.

Takaichi has been in parliament since 1993, with a two-year break. During this time, she has twice served as Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications in the Abe government and as Minister of Economic Security in the Fumio Kishida government. Prior to that, she held a number of less influential ministerial positions in Abe's first government from 2006 to 2007. Within the party, she headed the Policy Coordination Committee, which gave her influence over the party's policy formation. Takaichi is considered the successor to the dead Prime Minister Abe, who supported her in the 2021 LDP presidential election.

However, Takaichi remains a problematic figure for her coalition partner, Komeito. In addition, Prime Minister Ishiba has literally stated that he will do everything possible to prevent Abe's successors from ruling the country, so he will definitely not agree to resign if there is a possibility of her victory.Sanae Takaichi

Koizumi Jr. began his political career as his father's secretary in 2007 and became a member of the House of Representatives in 2009. In 2013, he was Parliamentary Vice-Minister of the Cabinet Office and Parliamentary Vice-Minister for Reconstruction. And in 2019-2021, Koizumi served as Minister of the Environment in the Abe and Suga cabinets.

Last year, Koizumi came third in the LDP leadership election. Ishiba appointed him head of the election campaign for the House of Representatives, and after Koizumi's defeat, he resigned. However, this year he unexpectedly became Minister of Agriculture and is surprisingly successfully addressing rising rice prices, which has boosted his personal rating.

The biggest obstacle in the eyes of his colleagues is Koizumi's youth and his unwillingness to consult with the party on certain issues. He has already responded to such criticism: ‘If the party consults on every decision a minister makes, no minister will be able to make bold decisions with a sense of timing.’ In addition, Koizumi is considered too liberal for the conservative voters that the LDP wants to win back.Shinjiro Koizumi

Which way the scales will tip depends on the election campaign that will take place over the next month. Each candidate will seek to enlist the support of the party's heavyweights. For Koizumi, it will be important for his father to openly acknowledge that the younger Koizumi is ready for the position. For Takaichi, it will be necessary to form a broader coalition, as the last elections were won by more moderate candidates.

Cooperation between Ukraine and Japan

From the very beginning of the full-scale invasion, Japan stood firmly on the side of Ukraine and became one of its largest financial donors. Due to the peculiarities of its legislation, which makes it impossible to export weapons, Japan focused on supporting humanitarian projects and providing grants for Ukraine's budget.

During the final year of Kishida's cabinet, Tokyo provided Ukraine with $2.2 billion in financial assistance. Over the course of his entire term in office, a total of €16 billion in aid was provided.

The Ishiba government continued Kishida's policy of assisting Ukraine. The first foreign visit of the newly appointed Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya was to Kyiv. In April this year, Japan agreed to provide Ukraine's military intelligence with geospatial data obtained from satellites, including radar images from SAR satellites. This was the first time in Japan's history that such permission had been granted. This summer, the Japanese government provided Ukraine with a loan of more than $3 billion, which will be serviced and repaid from future revenues from Russia's frozen assets. In addition, Japan provided Ukraine with equipment to restore its railway infrastructure.

Under both governments, Japan has proven to be a reliable partner for Ukraine. Prime Minister Ishiba also expressed interest in Japan becoming a participant in providing security guarantees for Ukraine. So far, it is unclear what specific commitments Tokyo is prepared to make, but it can be assumed that this could be direct financing of Ukraine's defence industry based on the Danish model.

For its part, Ukraine also has areas in which it can cooperate productively with Japan. Currently, Tokyo is engaged in strengthening its defence capabilities, including the development of drones, which Japan offers to other countries as an alternative to Chinese ones. Kyiv can provide its own experience and developments so that Tokyo can develop more effective drones that will compete with Chinese ones.

In addition, Ukraine can offer its own resources for the production of semiconductors, which are an important sector of the Japanese economy.

Finally, Ukraine must work on its own legislation in order to attract more Japanese investors to the Ukrainian economy, which will only increase Japanese interest in a stable and free Ukraine.

Conclusions

Japan is Ukraine's largest ally in Asia, supporting Kyiv for ideological and pragmatic reasons. In the near future, Tokyo is unlikely to move closer to Moscow, especially given that Russia does not want to resolve the issue of the Northern Territories, is strengthening its alliance with China and North Korea, and is intruding into Japan's airspace.

The Japanese once pursued a cautious policy of relations with Russia in the hope of reaching an agreement on the return of the Northern Territories and signing a peace treaty, which has remained an open question for more than 80 years. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine has changed this strategy, and Tokyo now strongly condemns the invasion and has no hope of reaching a peaceful agreement. Even attempts to reach agreement on practical issues, like fishing and the restoration of annual visits by former Japanese residents to the Northern Territories, have failed because Moscow isn't willing to talk.

Despite the change of prime minister, Ishiba's successor is not expected to change Japan's policy on Ukraine. Support for Ukraine is backed by Japanese society, and a change in policy would require the approval of the entire cabinet, not just the prime minister.

Analytical material prepared by Ostap Denysenko, a commentator on Japanese politics, exclusively for Resurgam.