The combat test and comeback of the JAS 39 Gripen. What do we know about the Swedish “up in the air” aircraft?

Jas 39 Gripen. Photo: Creative Commons/National Security Journal

The fourth-generation Swedish Jas 39 Gripen fighter jets, manufactured by SAAB, are one of the few fourth-generation combat aircraft developed in Europe. SAAB is also taking steps to develop a fifth-generation fighter jet in an attempt to catch up with its American and Chinese competitors.

From time to time, there are hints in the media about negotiations between Ukraine and Sweden on the possible transfer of Jas 39 Gripen aircraft to the Air Force.

The last time this happened was in early August. President Zelensky stated that a ‘strong project for the next decade in combat aviation’ was being prepared with the Swedes.

Sweden has allowed Ukrainian pilots to be trained on the Gripen as early as 2023. However, it is unknown whether the story has progressed beyond talks, as Western countries have focused on the transfer and training of personnel for F-16 aircraft, which are much more profitable to master due to their large number on the world market.

But sometimes, discussions about Swedish fighter jets come up again, and the possibility of getting these modern planes is still “up in the air” for Ukrainian aviation experts.

How effective are Swedish planes? Are they competitive? How much can Ukraine hope that SAAB aircraft will one day join the Air Force's fleet?

JAS 39 Gripen: which countries use it and why do they choose this particular aircraft?

There are many modifications of the Jas 39 Gripen fighter jet. The newest among them is the E-series line, represented by the JAS 39 E multi-role fighter, the JAS 39 F two-seater training aircraft, and the JAS 39 Gripen Maritime carrier-based fighter.

This fighter jet is currently in service with six countries:

Sweden (90 aircraft, including C and D modifications, with plans to acquire a further 60 E modifications by 2030);

Brazil (approximately 10 aircraft, with a further 30 expected by 2027);

the Czech Republic (14 leased aircraft);

Hungary (14 aircraft, with a further four expected next year);

South Africa (26 aircraft);

and Thailand (12 aircraft in service, with a further 12 expected by 2035).

The President of Colombia has also announced his intention to purchase up to 24 Jas 39 Gripen aircraft. Peru has also expressed interest (the agreement will cover 24 aircraft; the Swedish government has already sent a request to parliament for approval of the agreement).

One of the advantages of working with SAAB is that it's ready to share technology with countries that use Gripen aircraft and set up production of certain components there. For example, in 2023, a Gripen (E modification) production line was opened in Brazil. In February 2025, a SAAB office was opened in Budapest with the aim of establishing an Aviation Development Centre by the end of the year, which will specialise in avionics development, artificial intelligence and virtual reality technology integration, and software development.

Thailand was granted intellectual property rights to the Link-T data link (a specialised communication tool that enables the exchange of information between different aviation systems and equipment). For comparison: The American company Lockheed Martin, whose F-16 aircraft are also in service in Thailand, did not agree to provide data transmission channel technology.

In addition, Thailand plans to build a local maintenance and overhaul centre and modernise two Saab 340 Erieye early warning platforms. Thai companies have also been given the opportunity to join the Gripen supply chain, which will enable them to manufacture components just as tyres, bearings, clamps (a device manufactured to secure aircraft parts) and airframe parts.

Such steps enable client countries not only to acquire technology and build new production facilities, but also to develop their aerospace industry, innovation, scientific research and education.

The baptism by of the JAS 39 Gripen

Although the first production model was manufactured back in 1996, the aircraft saw its first combat action only in July 2025 during brief hostilities between Thailand and Cambodia.

Known fact, the Thai Air Force, using Gripen, carried out a successful attack on Cambodian positions. Brandon Weichert of the American publication – National Interest – emphasized the important role of Swedish aircraft in Thailand's victory: ‘The support of Swedish early warning and control systems’ (AWACS) Erieye, which are also operated by the Thai Air Force, played a key role in reducing the threat and coordinating missions, providing real-time situational awareness that helped avoid potential collisions with Cambodian anti-aircraft missile systems."

Comparing Gripen with the F-16, Brandon Weichert cites the following advantages of the first: “Gripen’s simple and straightforward design worked to its advantage during the recent war. For example, it has a smaller radar cross section (RCS) than the F-16, making it more difficult for Cambodian radars to detect. The JAS 39's operating costs are also significantly lower than other Western-made aircraft, making it a smart choice for countries with limited military budgets. Gripen can also operate from shorter runways, making it ideal for rapid deployment from Thailand's mountainous and jungle-like terrain."

Gripen's effectiveness is confirmed by the fact that, after the four-day standoff ended, the Thai government approved the purchase of four more Gripen E/F models for approximately $600 million, as part of a larger plan to acquire 12 fighter jets. This decision was made against the backdrop of a decision to gradually phase out Thailand's F-16s and, apparently, replace them with Gripen.

After such ‘advertising,’ it can be assumed that developing countries with limited military budgets but a need to upgrade their air fleets may be interested in purchasing the JAS 39 Gripen. For example, in Latin America or Asia, and possibly in Europe.

SAAB's dependence on the United States

One of the problems with the JAS 39 Gripen is its dependence on countries that manufacture various components of this aircraft. Of the European fighters of its generation, the Gripen is the most dependent, primarily on the United States. About a third of the aircraft's components come from the US. These are primarily the General Electric F414G engine, the Honeywell life support system and electronic sensors.

This dependence is a problem regarding the ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations) – US government regulations. According to the ITAR, if a weapon contains American components, the manufacturer must obtain special permission from the US to be able to export it to third countries.

For example, when SAAB was negotiating with Colombia, there was information that the US threatened not to transfer engines for aircraft that were to be supplied to Colombia later, or even to impose an export ban in order to persuade Colombia to buy F-16s.

The Colombian authorities and SAAB representatives did not officially confirm such pressure from the US, and in the end, Colombia opted for Gripen. Nevertheless, even the theoretical possibility of the US blocking a deal between SAAB and a third country imposes certain restrictions on the Swedish company's ability to compete with the Americans.

In the 2010s, SAAB tried to find an alternative to the American engine in Europe, but for unknown reasons, it was unsuccessful.

Currently, the company's management welcomes the trend towards European self-sufficiency in the defence sector. On 6 March 2024, in an interview with Bloomberg, SAAB CEO Mikael Johansson emphasised that the situation where 80% of Europe's defence spending goes to the US is wrong and that the balance should be changed so that at least 70% remains within Europe.

In March 2025, the Financial Times reported that SAAB was offering its Scandinavian neighbours the use of its GlobalEye reconnaissance aircraft instead of the American Boeing E-7 Wedgetail. However, the countries still chose the American aircraft.

At the same time, SAAB's management is trying to use cautious rhetoric and not criticise the US, probably mindful of the company's dependence on American components and seeking to avoid potential problems.

Fifth-generation fighter jet by SAAB

The fifth generation of fighter jets is the newest. This generation of aircraft has high protection against radar and other detection equipment, special sensors that allow the pilot to get an accurate picture of operations in real time, robust communications, advanced onboard diagnostics, reliable networks that link individual aircraft to create a common, accurate and highly integrated picture of the battlespace for friendly forces, etc.

The fifth-generation fighters are currently the American F-22 Raptor or F-35 Lightning ll and Chinese Chengdu J-20.. Europe does not produce aircraft of this generation and relies on American fighters. Can SAAB reach a new level and produce fifth-generation fighters?

The Swedish company already has some experience. The first steps in this direction were taken back in 2023. At that time, Sweden participated in the British-Italian-Japanese GCAP programme, but later it was decided to withdraw from the joint programme and develop a new aircraft on its own.

On 22 March 2024, SAAB announced that the Swedish Defence Logistics Agency had commissioned a concept study for a future Swedish fighter jet. According to the contract, the research should last from 2024 to 2025. The order includes ‘conceptual studies of manned and unmanned solutions from a system perspective, technology development and demonstrations’.

In 2024, SAAB presented conceptual images of the future aircraft. Peter Nilsson, Head of Advanced Programmes at Saab, said that "the project will focus on low visibility, autonomy, and electronic warfare capabilities. These priorities reflect the changing requirements and threat scenarios faced by modern air forces."

Conceptual image of the future aircraft

Saab's concept of mixed UAV and fighter patrolling, this ambition is the basis for the development of the KFS programme

‘During the flights, the Gripen E transferred control to Centaur (AI developed by Helsing - author's note), which successfully autonomously performed complex manoeuvres in combat conditions outside the line of sight and gave the pilot a signal to fire,’ the company said on 11 June. Out-of-sight combat conditions refer to air battles in which fighters attack each other at distances beyond the pilots' line of sight, usually more than 30-50 kilometres. This involves the use of radar and other sensors to detect and target enemy aircraft, rather than visual identification.

Thus, it can be noted that work on the next-generation aircraft is in progress. The only problem for the company may be the time it takes to develop and start production of this aircraft on an industrial scale. There are reports that this process could last until the 2040s or even 2050.

Thus, the company risks losing time, as it happened with the JAS 39 Gripen E: competitors are already offering 5th generation aircraft, while the Swedes are offering 4th or, according to some estimates, 4.5 generation aircraft (i.e., those with some characteristics of 5th generation aircraft). If the process is delayed until 2050, there is a risk that by the time SAAB enters the market with 5th or even 5.5 generation aircraft (through modifications), competitors will already be offering 6th generation aircraft.

This does not mean that SAAB will be left without customers. In addition to Sweden, which is likely to buy aircraft from its own manufacturer, there will be countries for which the 6th generation aircraft will be too expensive and exceed their needs in terms of functionality. However, those countries that have the financial means will likely prefer the latest generation of aircraft, like it is already happening in some European countries, even though the trend is moving towards strategic self-sufficiency.

Can Ukraine count on SAAB aircraft for its Air Force?

There are arguments, for and against.

The following factors play in favour of this possibility:

First, SAAB aircraft are cheaper and easier to learn than more ‘current’ fifth-generation aircraft. This is a positive factor for Ukraine, given the need to expand the Ukrainian Air Force's fleet and limited financial resources.

Second, SAAB's openness to sharing technology and localising production or certain elements of production will give Ukraine more independence in terms of providing itself with aircraft in the event of new Russian aggression. This could also be beneficial for Ukrainian engineers and the Ukrainian aviation industry. Ukraine has its own aviation industry, and there is no reason to exclude the possibility of SAAB and Ukrainian manufacturers cooperating on joint projects to localise certain parts or components of the aircraft.

By the way, the Air Force of Ukraine has first 2 SAAB aircraft in service - though not fighters, but ASC-890 long-range radar detection aircraft.

However, there are factors against it.

After the end of hostilities, which will happen sooner or later, Ukraine will need to reorganise its air force. In particular, there will be a request to unify the fleet. It is not known what decisions will be made in this regard, but if we talk about foreign-made fighters, Ukraine currently has the most American F-16 fighters. It can be assumed that the unification of fighter aircraft may be based on this platform.

In terms of fighter jet generations, SAAB's fighter jets are significantly behind the US F-35. Given the significant gap in resources between Ukraine and Russia, Kyiv needs to win with quality, not quantity. From this perspective, Ukraine will need the most modern aircraft.

However, Ukraine's limited financial capabilities after the end of the war must be taken into account. Even though security will be a key issue for Ukraine for decades to come, there may be a situation where Ukraine cannot afford to buy the latest US fighter jets, especially if demand for them remains just as high as it is now.

After all, SAAB's production volume and the list of countries that operate their fighter jets are significantly inferior to its competitors. As of 2024, the number of Gripens produced was about 300, and the number of F-16s produced was over 4,500. Of course, the F-16 is an older aircraft (the first flight of the prototype took place in 1974, while the Gripen's first flight was in 1988). However, if we take the arithmetic mean (i.e., 4500 F-16s divided by 50 years and 300 Gripens by 36 years), it turns out that an average of 90 F-16s were produced per year, while only 8 Gripens were produced.

Therefore, a situation may arise where, during a new war with Russia, Ukraine will not be able to replace damaged aircraft on a massive scale or obtain parts for them. Due to the small number of countries that operate these aircraft, the ability to request assistance in solving this problem will be severely limited, even if some of these countries may be unfriendly to Ukraine.

SAAB, in terms of fighter aircraft, has managed to find its niche in the global market: Sweden, as well as countries that need high-quality, relatively inexpensive and easy-to-learn fighter jets, given the limited capabilities of these countries in terms of military budgets.

Moreover, the Swedes are taking steps to deepen cooperation with these countries and are also negotiating to expand their client list. The recent ‘baptism by fire’ of Gripen, as well as the willingness to share technology, may contribute to this, and the availability of orders for years to come indicates that SAAB is not in danger of declining in the near future.

Yet, a significant technological gap with competitors prevents the company from entering the market of countries that can afford the latest aircraft models, even though it has created various modifications and started work on a new generation aircraft.

Despite possible changes in the future, it is currently more likely that the Gripen will not become the main type of fighter jet in Ukraine. However, cooperation with the Ukrainian aviation industry on other projects is possible. It is not impossible to imagine Ukraine purchasing other types of SAAB aircraft.

Analytical article prepared by Kostiantyn Hlushko, analyst and reviewer at the "Resurgam" Center for Northern European Policy