Nuclear geopolitics in the Balkans. What stands behind Serbia and Rosatom's interests in negotiations on the construction of a nuclear power plant?

In November 2024, Serbia abolished the ban on the construction of nuclear power plants, which had been in force since 1989. The reason for this decision was the country's dependence on coal-fired power plants, growing domestic consumption and limited capacity to import energy resources. In particular, more than 62% of Serbia's electricity production came from solid fossil fuels, making the transition to nuclear energy one of the most realistic ways to increase the country's energy security.

As part of its ‘green course’, Belgrade expanded its contacts with the South Korean company KHNP, signing two memorandums of cooperation in 2025, and with the French company EDF, which is conducting research on the potential for nuclear energy use in Serbia. During Aleksandar Vucic's visit to Beijing in September 2025, negotiations took place during which the Serbian president expressed his willingness to cooperate with Rosatom in the context of the construction of a nuclear power plant, as the corporation has competitive advantages, in particular the presence of a complete production cycle – from construction to fuel supply and waste disposal.

Serbia's interests with regard to cooperation with Rosatom

In 2023-2024, the European Commission introduced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which requires Serbia, as a candidate for membership, to reduce its CO2 emissions. This has a direct impact on Serbian metal and cement exports and will therefore mean that without low-carbon energy, the country will lose its competitiveness in the industrial market. Since the country is more than 65% dependent on lignite (coal) power plants, compliance with EU requirements for greening energy has forced the state to seek support in developing an eco-friendly energy source.

Serbia seeks to ensure its own energy security while replacing outdated generation facilities. An important advantage will be the balancing of electricity supply and demand as well as reduced vulnerability to seasonal fluctuations and crisis situations. In addition, if the project is implemented, Serbia will not only be able to meet its own needs, but also become an exporter of electricity in the Balkan region, which will contribute to strengthening its geopolitical influence on neighbouring countries and stimulate the training of highly qualified and competitive workers.

The Serbian authorities can use the announcement of the construction of a nuclear power plant to demonstrate technological and European integration progress, which is especially important considering the large-scale demonstrations that have been going on in the country for about a year. On the one hand, this will mean an increase in the government's popularity, but on the other - it will provoke opposition resistance due to the risks of dependence on Russia.

However, President Vucic sees the construction of a nuclear power plant as a way to display himself as a leader who has ensured an ‘energy breakthrough’ for the country.

The construction of a nuclear power plant - is an extremely costly initiative for Serbia, which is unachievable without external financing. Rosatom is offering the country a favourable deal with low-interest loans through Russian state banks. However, under these circumstances, Belgrade, which has limited access to EU markets, will find itself in debt to Moscow for decades. In the long term, there will be risks of diminishing Serbia's sovereignty in forming its national energy policy.

Russia's interests in the Serbian nuclear project

After 2022, Rosatom became subject to sanctions, which limited its influence in a significant part of the global energy markets. As the Balkans remain a region of Moscow's continued presence, the joint project with Serbia could be an economic and political breakthrough for Russia, demonstrating that isolation is not an obstacle for the Kremlin in exporting high-tech products. Provided that both sides agree on the construction, the initiative could become an example of Russia's ‘new energy diplomacy.’

Energy cooperation with Belgrade opens up new opportunities for Moscow to strengthen its influence in the Balkan region. The construction of a nuclear power plant creates a structural dependence on Serbia through fuel, equipment, services and other elements controlled by the supplier, Russia. The implementation of the project will give the Kremlin a significant channel of economic and geopolitical leverage over the Balkan region, which is already quite dependent in some areas and constantly exposed to the Russian Federation's information influence.

The agreement on the project will be a lucrative financial deal for Russia, as Rosatom will provide a full cycle of services. From financing to operation, and as a result - Moscow will be able to make a profit and secure long-term international service contracts. This will help the Kremlin break out of its international isolation. In addition, Russia will gain control over part of Serbia's energy policy and, provided it exports energy to neighbouring Balkan countries, will be able to influence other importing countries.

The role of the EU and other actors

The European Commission is monitoring the negotiations, as it considers the agreement with Rosatom to be a threat to the energy security of the EU and the region as a whole, and at the same time contradicts the sanctions regime. Brussels may demand an international tender and the involvement of European companies in the process in order to avoid a Russian monopoly in Serbia.

Since the construction of a nuclear power plant has a cross-border impact, countries bordering Serbia, such as Croatia, Romania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, may lodge a protest against the construction of the nuclear power plant due to environmental risks. This could lead to additional consultations with international experts.

Due to sanctions, global banks generally do not finance projects involving Russia. This means that Serbia will have no alternative sources of capital and will increase its dependence on Moscow, which will affect the country's domestic and foreign policy.

Potential impact on Ukraine and its foreign policy interests

Russia's increased role in the Balkans will make it more difficult for Ukraine to promote anti-Russian sanctions and weaken its position in the battle for information space. Serbia's financial dependence will become a lever of influence for Moscow in the war in Ukraine.

In addition, the disruption of energy solidarity will have an impact on the sanctions policy against Russia, as a number of countries will be motivated to enter into negotiations with the Kremlin. Moscow's cooperation with Serbia may signal a reduction in the Kremlin's foreign policy isolation, which in turn will weaken support for Ukraine.

Conclusions

Serbia faces a choice in the energy sector between the Moscow model of development – a quick solution, but one that leads to dependence – and the European model – a slower path, but one that is sustainable and secure, based on standards of transparency. Serbia's negotiations with Rosatom are not only Belgrade's economic choice to establish energy sovereignty, but also a determination of the strategic direction of its foreign policy.

In addition, Belgrade faces a number of other threats, such as possible isolation from European markets and investment programmes, the risk of sanctions, and difficulties in accessing funds and international loans.

The analytical article was prepared by Daria Honcharenko, an intern at the think tank Resurgam.