About the state of the ‘traffic light coalition’ and Scholz's potential call to Putin.
Since our last conversation about the potential withdrawal of the Free Democrats from the coalition, the situation has continued to rapidly escalate:
The leader of the Free Democrats, Finance Minister Lindner, continues to give unambiguous interviews, where he demands either a decision on the budget as he wants or his party leaves the coalition. One might assume that if Scholz agrees to Lindner's demand, the Free Democrats will calm down. But this is not the case. Lindner has opened up an internal party genie of frustration with the ‘traffic lights’.
Last year, the Free Democrats were already planning to leave the coalition, but the internal party vote failed to reach such a decision. There were 47% in favour of leaving. Now, the party is preparing for a similar ‘party referendum’ and the potential for a favourable outcome is much greater.
In the ‘Greens’, the party's top leadership has resigned and the youth wing has left the party. Therefore, the party is going through a period of internal party crisis and transformation, which will have an unknown impact on the attitude towards the ‘traffic light coalition’. Opinions on leaving the coalition are divided, and with the resignation of the party's top leadership, the issue has become less relevant due to organisational problems. But there are thoughts about leaving. Albeit not as explicitly as demonstrated by the other coalition members, - the ‘Free Democrats’.
‘The Social Democrats (SPD) - mostly want to leave things as they are, but many are sceptical about the question: ‘Will the coalition survive until the end of the year?’. There are three groups: the first is to leave everything as it is and try to reach an agreement with the Free Democrats. The second is to replace Scholz as chancellor with the more popular Pistorius. This is possible without early elections. This would stabilise the rating of the SPD and its coalition allies, which would reassure the Free Democrats. The third option is to prepare for early elections.
If the Free Democrats leave the coalition, there are three options for further developments:
There will be a minority government of the SPD + Die Grünen until the next elections (end of 2025). But this option is unlikely for a number of reasons.
The Social Democrats will invite the AfD or CDU to form a broad coalition by the end of 2025. But this is an even less likely option.
Early elections will be called for spring 2025.
There are rumours that the Free Democrats already have a plan to 100% guarantee the third option with early elections. The plan is to block the adoption of the ‘government budget plan for 2025’, which the Free Democrats do not support in terms of its content. In this case, Scholz will have practically no chance of remaining in office for a year based on a minority government.
The crucial date on the calendar is 14 November, when everything must be decided. Either the budget and Scholz's pension reform plan will be adopted, or the coalition will collapse.
If the Free Democrats do not make their move by this date, there will be no point in ‘turning off the traffic lights’ for either party after that date.
Regarding the information on Zeit from an anonymous source of Scholz's team that he will call Putin.
To do so during the ‘coalition storm’, when the ship could be overturned by any additional waves, would be a rather reckless choice, considering Scholz's political experience. Obviously, in case of a call, this would cause outrage among the Free Democrats and Die Grünen. The only logical explanation could be that ‘Scholz was asked from overseas to pass on certain information to Moscow. But this is also an unlikely option, as Scholz would not agree to a step that could be the last straw for his coalition.
Therefore, in our opinion, the information in the Zeit should be taken as aimed at simply swinging the ‘coalition boat’ even further. However, we should not completely rule out the possibility of such talks between Scholz and Putin in the future.