Scholz's fate now depends on a couple from a small German town.

*Moscovia is the historically correct name of the Moscow Empire and the Russian Federation.

Ulf Kazimir, the local chairman of the Free Democrats in the small town of Neu-Isenburg, can change not only Scholz's fate as a politician, but also influence the geopolitical course of events.

A week ago, Ulf and his wife, who is also a party official of the Free Democrats, started collecting signatures for a referendum within the party on leaving the government coalition.

Ulf has taken the most difficult path - collecting signatures for a “party referendum” rather than a “poll.” The path is more difficult, but if successful, the results of the referendum will be “binding on the party leadership.” Regardless of the position of the federal leadership of the Free Democrats at that time.

In order to start the referendum, Ulf needs to collect 3,500 signatures of fellow party members or get the support of three regional associations (potentially 2 so far). During the first week, a “three-digit number” of signatures were collected, but this was the result of a completely unknown party functionary as of the day before yesterday.

And as of the day before yesterday, it is now a functionary supported by two large party groups of the Free Democrats: “Wake-Up Call Freedom" and "Alliance for Freedom". The strength of these groups was enough to organize a poll among party members last year.

Wake-Up Call Freedom is a part of the Free Democrats, which in a memorandum to the party leadership demanded “either a party referendum on leaving the coalition” or “the resignation of party chairman Lindner.”

Collecting signatures is a rather diligent process that requires the initiator to send an email to the heads of party organizations (done), they must notify party members (partially done), the party member must print and manually fill out the questionnaire and then send it to the address specified by the initiator (just started to be implemented).

German publications report that in recent days Ulf has been receiving “bundles” of letters of votes from his mailbox every day. It is also known that Scholz is well informed about the couple's activities.

Ulf's main task is to collect signatures and hold a referendum in the party before Christmas. By that time, Scholz's government will be able to “close” three issues: migration, pension reform, and the budget. In this case, there is a 90% chance that a “vote of confidence” will take place, which Chancellor Scholz will most likely lose.

Paradoxically, the fate of Scholz's entire federal government now depends on the previously unknown Ulf. And on whether the groups Wake-Up Call Freedom and Alliance for Freedom have enough time and media and financial support to organize a party referendum. They plan to collect signatures at the Free Democrats' party events in early December.

More paradoxically, Ulf's actions may directly affect the future security and geopolitical landscape in Europe and Ukraine. Scholz's early resignation is very likely to bring his opponent Merz to the chancellorship, who has already made several public commitments to supply long-range missiles to Ukraine and potentially authorize the use of these weapons to inflict serious damage on Moscovia's occupation forces.

In fact, the “rebels from the grassroots” have already gone far beyond Ulf's private initiative. The main strike to “turn off the traffic lights” is being prepared from late November to December, and several heads of the federal organizations of the Free Democrats are involved in this, putting pressure on the head of the Lindner party from below, demanding to leave the coalition.

Scholz's main opponent, the Christian Democrats of Merz, are already reworking their election strategies to take into account possible early elections. This became known after a meeting at the CDU headquarters Konrad-Adenauer-Haus. The CDU strategists name March 9, 2025 as a possible date for early elections.

What started as a “family rebellion” may end up being an event of geopolitical importance.