Why Scholz's neutrality actually blessed the strikes against Moscovia in Europe.

*Moscovia is the historically correct name for the Moscow Empire and the Russian Federation.

As we have previously noted, President Macron will try to ‘co-opt’ the chancellor during his meeting with Scholz. Basically, this has happened. If we filter the information correctly, we can understand the process.

1. At the first stage, the goal of Ukraine's partners was to form a pressure group that supports the idea of striking Moscovia with Western weapons. The key leaders of this group are France, the United Kingdom, Denmark, the Czech Republic and the Baltic States.

2. The second stage, which took place yesterday during a meeting between President Macron and Chancellor Scholz. The purpose of this stage is to try to find a compromise in the Chancellor's categorical position and at least to obtain a partial lifting of restrictions on the use of Western weapons on the territory of Moscovia for the purpose of preventive defence, in order to prevent new offensives by Moscow on the border of Ukraine.

3. The third stage is the process of collective pressure by European countries on the White House to ensure that the administration of current President Biden lifts the restrictions on the use of weapons, at least in part. These bans force Ukraine to ‘fight with one hand tied’ while the occupation forces of Moscovia have no restrictions.

Scholz's statements during the joint press conference with Macron indicate a certain change in the chancellor's position from a hard ‘no’ to a ‘silent agreement’.

Although Chancellor Scholz made an ambiguous statement, it contained an important hint: ‘to use weapons with respect for partners and within the framework of international law’. And the key phrase in Chancellor Scholz's response is ‘within the framework of international law’. Because this is the interpretation that is the main message of Brussels, which is in favour of removing the restrictions.

Twelve hours before Scholz's statement, the head of European diplomacy Borrell held a press conference and expressed the official EU position that ‘within the framework of international law and defensive warfare, Ukraine can use weapons to strike the objects used by Moscovia to attack Ukraine’.

In other words, Scholz's phrase ‘use with respect for partners’ hints at the potential possibility of a permission for Kyiv, but with strict control. This could mean territorial restrictions: for example, only strikes at a limited depth, or with a detailed list of targets.

In the phrase ‘in accordance with international norms’, Scholz puts the responsibility on Brussels' position for granting such permission and, accordingly, on Ukraine's duty to strictly control the targets.

Such moments in Chancellor Scholz's answers indicate that the rhetoric of the Chancellor has become softer and is a ‘silent approval’ for Stoltenberg, Blinken, Macron and others to move to the ‘third stage’, which is to directly convince US President Biden and his National Security Advisor Sullivan. Therefore, given the amount of pressure that will be exerted on Biden both from the outside (from European countries) and from within (calls to cancel the restrictions), we can expect that at least part of these restrictions will be cancelled in the near future.