Corporation instead of democracy. Results of parliamentary elections in Transnistria

Sheriff Supermarket in Tiraspol. Photo: sheriff.md

On 30 November 2025, regular parliamentary elections to the Supreme Council were held in unrecognised Transnistria. At first glance, this is a normal procedure for rotating the body of deputies in a region that has been in a state of frozen conflict for over thirty years. However, behind the facade of polling stations and ballot boxes lies a harsh reality, as Transnistria has long stopped being just an unrecognised quasi-state. It is now a unique experiment in corporate governance of a territory where the line between business and power has been completely blurred.

The current elections have only highlighted the deep systemic crisis in Transnistria, where the old economic model has finally collapsed and Russian support is no longer enough to save the situation. The region faces a choice between integration with Moldova or inevitable economic and social collapse.

“Republic of Sheriff”: who really rules Transnistria

Real power is concentrated in the hands of the Sheriff holding company, which controls about 60% of the region's legal economy – from supermarkets and petrol stations to television channels, a football club and telecommunications operators. Half of the budget is formed from taxes paid by this structure, and no political decision is made without the approval of the holding company's management. Official authorities, including President Vadym Krasnoselsky and parliament, perform formal representative functions, while the real levers of influence are in the hands of the Gushan family's business elite.

The Obnovlenie party, which holds 29 of the 33 seats in the Supreme Council, is the political wing of Sheriff. Galina Antufeyeva, who has led the party since 2016, does not make independent decisions, as she carries out the will of the real masters of the PMR. The party's candidates in the elections receive financial support, access to administrative resources and media promotion through the holding's channels. In such a system, the outcome of the elections is determined not by the will of the citizens, but by agreements within the elite.

Electoral system and political landscape

Elections to the Supreme Council of Transnistria are held under a majority system in 33 single-member districts, which allows the results to be controlled through direct links between candidates and voters, administrative resources and the financing of ‘desired’ candidates.

The political landscape is totally monotonous. There are effectively only two political forces in the region: the Obnovlenie party and the Transnistrian Communist Party, which, despite their differences in domestic policy, are unanimously in favour of an alliance with Russia. There are simply no pro-European or even moderately pro-Moldovan forces, and any attempts to create an alternative are harshly suppressed through legal proceedings and the disqualification of candidates.

Electoral campaign and removal of opposition candidates

The elections are mainly contested by current MPs, local officials and businessmen associated with the Sheriff holding company. The system does not allow new faces, limiting the renewal of the elite to cosmetic rotation within a narrow circle. Obnovlenie's programme statements boil down to abstract promises of economic stability, ‘protection from Chisinau’ and expectations of Russian support, without any specific mechanisms for implementation. The communists appeal to nostalgia for the USSR and criticise Obnovlenie for corruption, but their strategy boils down to demands for social payments and financial assistance from Moscow, which is unlikely given the war in Ukraine and sanctions.

The 2025 election campaign demonstrated a complete lack of political competition. The Central Election Commission systematically removed undesirable candidates. Some were accused of ‘separatism’ for calling for dialogue with Moldova, others were disqualified for formal errors, and still others were pressured through tax audits and threats of criminal prosecution. On the eve of the vote on 25 November, the court removed activist Oleksandr Bondarenko from the race, accusing him of supposedly promising material benefits to voters, while his opponent from the Sheriff holding company made only abstract promises and remained unpunished.

The most resonant example was the removal of Mykola Malyshev, as a law was passed retroactively prohibiting those who had been rejected twice from running for office, depriving the opposition activist of the opportunity to participate in the elections. Malyshev openly criticised corruption and the security forces, for which he was subjected to threats, attacks and physical violence. 

These cases demonstrate that the authorities are turning elections into a ritual where the result is known in advance and any opposition is only possible within limits that are safe for the region's elites.

The end of illusions about ‘brotherhood’ with Russia

The model of corporate feudalism could have functioned for a long time under conditions of economic stability, but 2025 finally destroyed Transnistria's ‘pseudo-prosperity.’ On the eve of the elections, Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Federation Council's international committee, spoke of ‘unbreakable historical ties,’ but behind this rhetoric lies complete indifference to the real problems of the people.

The era of free gas ended after the end of transit through Ukraine. Now, supplies are provided through a non-transparent scheme: gas is supplied through the Hungarian company MET, and payments are made by intermediaries from Dubai using a Russian loan, the terms of which are unknown.

The consequences became apparent as early as October 2025, when it was necessary to introduce gas-saving measures, turn off hot water and postpone the heating season. Payment delays also recurred in November.  Since Russia's support no longer saves the economy, this scheme makes Transnistria vulnerable to every failure and completely dependent on the political will of the Kremlin.

The simulated election process produced the expected result

The parliamentary elections on 30 November 2025 finally confirmed Transnistria's transformation into a controlled corporation without political pluralism. The Sheriff holding company retained full control over all government institutions, and the new parliament will be formed exclusively from loyal functionaries. The Obnovlenie party retained control of parliament, winning a majority of seats, but this is an empty victory over the ruins of the economy. The communists slightly strengthened their position, but their influence remains limited.

According to the Central Election Commission, 45 candidates ran for 33 seats. There is no turnout threshold for the elections to be considered valid, and the officially recorded turnout was only 26%.

This catastrophically low figure reflects the deep apathy of the population and their loss of faith in the possibility of change. The population effectively ignores the elections by not participating in formal procedures, and administrative pressure, threats and promises have only a partial effect. Young people are leaving en masse in search of work in Moldova, Romania or Russia, leaving the region populated mainly by the older generation, which deepens the crisis of the region's viability.

The results were so predictable that even the pro-Russian media could not find any intrigue in them. The elections have become a ritual of confirming the status quo, because outwardly it is a formal democracy, but in reality it is completely controlled by the business elite. The population is beginning to realise that the region's survival depends on Chisinau, not Tiraspol.

Moldova also did not recognise the legitimacy of the parliamentary elections in Transnistria, emphasising that they took place in a temporarily occupied territory without compliance with international standards and the presence of independent observers. However, instead of confrontation, Moldova continues its strategy of ‘remote reintegration’ through economic levers.

Thus, the future of Transnistria is no longer determined by ideological promises or formal elections – it is determined by economic reality. The region faces an inevitable choice: to continue to imitate ‘statehood’ or to integrate with Moldova, opening up access to European markets and stable resources.
Without this, there is no future – and the question is no longer about voting, but about the time frame and the price of years of preserved illusion.

Recommendations

Ukraine, the EU and Moldova should agree on a new package of sanctions targeting the Transnistrian leadership and the Sheriff holding company in order to limit their ability to spread Russian influence in the region and minimise risks to national security.

At the same time, it is necessary to deepen security cooperation with Moldova and Romania, from law enforcement coordination to joint exercises and operations. This approach will effectively deter possible destabilising actions by Russia and strengthen overall regional stability.