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Farid Bagirov, analyst specializiting of Central Europe
Photo: Getty Images
The USA became the main ally of Poland after the 1989 revolution. The Polish security system relied on American guarantees as a part of the Washington Treaty. But Trump`s policy toward allies changed the game. Requirements to allies in NATO to increase expenses on safety to 5% of GDP and his wish to reduce presence of american troops in Europe compells Poland to prepare for Russians threats itself. It is a consequence of policy America First. Poland aims to keep USA involved in Europe`s security against he backdrop of raising risk of aggression from Russia. First of all, the situation became complicated, when the Pentagon began the withdrawal of American troops from European countries. This made Europeans to think about their defense without the USA. In May, 2026 The Pentagon declared a reduction of American troops in Germany. Trump said that Pentagon will withdraw 5000 troops. Two weeks later it became known that Pentagon postponed rotation of 4000 American troops in Poland. Some units arrived in Poland, but got orders to return.
Later the Polish Ministry of Defense Kosiniak-Kamysz said that USA didn`t reduce its presence in Poland and that it was about delaying of American troops. He emphasized that Poland remains a model ally for the US. Then deputy minister of defense Pawel Zalewski arrived in Washington and discussed with American officials troop deployment, weapon modernization, cooperation of military industry of both countries. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that American troops remain in Poland at “current level”. The Pentagon confirmed the delaying of deployment of troops to Poland and said it happened because of Trump`s policy America First. However Pentagon assured that American presence will be kept. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that increasing of American presence have been ongoing for about two years. He hoped for transatlantic cooperation between the USA and Europe in general and Poland in particular.
On 27th October 2026 Poland said that build missiles maintenance centre shall be built in it’s territory. Also Poland works to establish an American military base. Some bases are already located in Poland. The base in Redzikowo is an American Air Defense base that became operational in 2024. Is the second such subject in Eastern Europe (first was opened in Romania). The strategic goal of these bases is to create a system of Air Defense, which provides protection from ballistic missiles. Another base, Camp Kosciuszko is responsible for direct operational control, coordination and logistic support. In June 2026 the Polish government accepted a decision to establish a military base for permanent deployment of American forces. This decision emphasized that this base will strengthen the security of the Eastern flank of NATO. Then Kosiniak-Kamysz said that Pentagon accepted the plan of creation of a new base. The Polish Ministry of Defense emphasized the importance of his country in the Eastern flank of NATO.
The Head of Polish Bureau of Foreign Policy Marcin Przydacz said that establishment of the base was discussed at White House level during Trump and Nawrocki talks. Also, the President of the Republic of Poland confirmed that discussion of this topic is ongoing and hoped that building of base will start in near future. This action indicates first of all that Poland seeks to enlarge the US forces presence in Eastern Europe. The US Army remains the main guarantee of Polish safety. The instability of Trump`s administration foreign policy compels Poland to reinforce American guarantees with real increasing of American troops. Also Poland accepted financial support of the American forces and a new base. Polish foreign policy strategy will build on the growth of European contribution to transatlantic security. Polish politicians actually supported the plan of creation of “NATO 3.0”.
Polish – Ukrainian military cooperation developed from restoration of both countries independence. Poland and Ukraine together took part in a military operation in Kosovo, where POLUKRBAT (Polish-Ukrainian Battalion) was formed. In 2016 countries assigned agreement of cooperation in defense sphere. After Russian full-scale invasion – cooperation between Poland and Ukraine expanded. Poland became one of the first countries that provided Ukraine with military aid (such as ammunition and heavy armor). So, Polish politicians realize raising threat from Russia and role that Ukraine plays in dettering of of Russian aggression on Europe. Poland plays an important role in training Ukrainian soldiers. The treaty about military cooperation was signed in July 2024, ane one of conditions was about training Ukrainian soldiers in Poland. On October 2025 the base for training Ukrainian forces was created in Podkarpacze. In his official statement Kosiniak-Kamysz said that this training shall allow to transfer battlefield experience, in particular implementation of UAV technologies.
One of the main directions of Polish-Ukrainian cooperation is joint production of weapon. First of all it is about Drone Deal. Minister of defense of Poland and those time minister of defense of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal signed in Kyiv agreement about military cooperation, where main role assigned to joint defense production. Kosiniak-Kamysz emphasized importance of development of unmanned system and raising of investments in defense industry. Poland also plays important role in delivering military aid. On press conference the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and prime- minister of Poland Donald Tusk underlined Polish aid in PURL programs and said about importance of Ukrainian experience in modern war. Military cooperation became the reality with signing agreement between Ukrainian and Polish companies. UkrOboronProm (Ukrainian Defense Industry) signed with PGZ (Polish Army Group) agreement about the increase of production of ammunition, armored vehicle, artillery and air defense. The Ukrainian drone-producer company TAF industries signed a memorandum with PGZ about expanding production and localization in Poland.
Poland planned to exchange Ukrainian unmanned technologies on Soviet MiG-29 fighter jets. The plan of transferring of drone technologies on MiG-29 fighter jet was confirmed by Kosiniak-Kamysz. When diplomatic relations between Poland and Ukraine worsened this transfer was delayed. Deputy of the Ministry of Defense of Poland Cezary Tomczyk confirmed that Poland was ready to transfer technologies. Kosiniak-Kamysz blamed Ukraine for violation of the agreement. He said that this fighter jet shall be scrapped. But then deputy of the minister of defense Sobkowiak-Czarnecka informed that Ukraine sent a new proposal. So talks about drone – fighter jet agreement is ongoing.
Also direct military aid is an important part of Polish – Ukrainian bilateral cooperation. The Polish ministry of defense confirmed that help to Ukraine is a strategic interest of Poland and the line of Polish security lay on the frontline in Ukraine. Is in Polish interests to destroy Russia’s military abilities. So despite the fact that Polish-Ukrainian diplomatic relations worsened because of historical questions Polish officials link security of their country with the results of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Ukraine has unique experience in modern war, which will be useful for the modernization of the Polish forces. That`s why Poland is so interested in Ukrainian unmanned technologies to strengthen Polish security. Another direction of cooperation is Polish aid to Ukraine that weakens Russian military mechanism. So the strength of Ukraine is in Polish interests. Polish politicians said that without a safe and independent Ukraine there shall not be a safe Europe, in particular Poland.
Also Polish-Ukrainian military cooperation is useful for both countries. Ukrainian troops can bring experience for the Polish Army. Some of the agreements include joint training and exercises of troops and the Ukrainian Army has experience of modern war. Joint projects simplify Ukrain`s road to NATO. The development of Polish-Ukrainian cooperation in military industry may ease Ukraine to get access to the defense budget of NATO and EU. And military cooperation between two countries is useful for Poland. Besides getting experience, Ukrainian and Polish Army may take part in different military operations of NATO or some regional unions. Experience of Polish-Ukrainian peacemaker operation in Kosovo may be deepened by joint defense operation in Eastern Europe. So this cooperation shall be mutually beneficial. Poland gives financial resources and a production base and gets experience of modern war. Ukraine strengthened its own Army with different units of weapons and used them on the battlefield. Different projects of military cooperation between Poland and Ukraine may become a base for broader defense in East Europe. Polish-Ukrainian ties form the architecture of security in East Europe because they include two of the largest and strongest armies in the region. That`s why current tension between two countries shall not hinder development of cooperation between them.
Poland became a member of NATO in 1999. It was an important decision for Polish defense. Article 5 and American guarantees raised Polish security. These conditions of the early XXI century made Poland and all Europe safer. But in 2020th risk for Poland increased. During the ong time expenses on security were lower than 2% from GDP. When Trump returned to theWhite House he demanded to increase it to 5% of GDP. After 2014 talks about threats to the Eastern flank of NATO raised. That`s why the alliance raised its presence in Eastern countries. Poland is the strongest country in this region. One of the decisions in the Warsaw summit in 2016 was the plan to establish an enhanced Forward Presence in the northeast and a tailored Forward Presence in the southeast. This decision strengthened the capability of NATO and enlarged its ability to respond to threats. In summits in Madrid, 2022, and in Vilnius, 2023, the activity of NATO on the Eastern flank was raised and a new regional defense plan was created. Poland plays a main role in this plan.
There are 2 headquarters in Poland: in Szczecin and Elblag. Headquarters are responsible for commanding NATO forces in the northeast. Poland plays an important role in logistics. Polish city Rzeszow is used by NATO to transfer weapons to Ukraine. The airport in Wroclaw is prepared to locate American aircraft. Airport Strachowice became a new military hub. But At the same time, the Polish side emphasises that the use of this infrastructure must serve Poland’s national interests. In particular, one of its conditions is the conclusion of contracts with Polish defence companies, following the US practice. Poland became a regional power with a strong army and a key role in the defense plan of NATO. It was the result of economic growth and a change of Polish strategy. So Poland joined NATO to get guarantees from stronger countries, but now it can defend other countries in the region. For example, a Polish group is standing in Latvia.
Also Polish regional role rose with new defense treaties that this country signed with some allies in NATO. So an agreement was signed with France, Great Britain and Germany. On 9th May 2025 a treaty was signed in Nancy. This treaty deepens cooperation between two countries in some direction, in particular in defense. The Treaty of Nancy emphasizes the importance of NATO and EU in collective defense, but also strengthens bilateral obligations. France and Poland agreed to develop the defense industry in both countries. They also agreed to conduct joint military drills, missions and deployment. Also they agreed to deeper exchanging information about Central Europe. Parties decided to develop transport infrastructure as a part of strength defense. After Trump`s threats about reducing American presence in Europe or leaving NATO, France declared new strategic plans to defend European countries. In particular, the President of France said about the nuclear umbrella. Emmanuel Macron said some countries hold talks about it, including Poland. The Polish Prime Minister confirmed this information.
On 27th May 2026 a similar treaty was signed between Great Britain and Poland. Parties decided to deepen cooperation in different directions. Both countries agreed to enlarge cooperation in multilateral and bilateral relations, joint exercising, and developing the defense industry. Also parties agreed to enlarge cooperation in developing weapons of the future, joint defense on the Baltic sea and strengthen security on the Eastern flank of NATO. In July 2026 a treaty between Germany and Poland was signed. This treaty also enlarged joint exercises and cooperation in the defense industry. Both countries agreed to strengthen security in the Baltic region. So, three agreements have some similarities. First of all, one of the conditions is bilateral obligation about joint defense. Although parties emphasized deeper multilateral defense in NATO, Poland needed other guarantees for its security if article 5 of Washington Treaty shall not be used. And talks about joining the French nuclear umbrella are trying to provide nuclear defense not only from the USA. Also the agreement underlined the role of the Eastern flank of NATO and emphasized the threat coming from Russia. Poland gets guarantees about aid from these countries in countering hybrid attack. Also important articles about developing and cooperation in the defense industry. That is important for Poland that wants to enlarge its heavy weapons, including tanks, MLRS and aircrafts. Actually these agreements make a system of additional guarantees for Poland which strengthen its safety and make it not depend on American guarantees.
After restoring its independence Poland became a member of some regional unions.
This regional union was established after Revolutions 1989 for joint forming of democratic institutions and becoming members of EU. V4 united countries with common culture and values and first of all was union of cultural and economic cooperation. But self-defense and security are important for this region and countries. On 9th November 2022 the framework for defense cooperation of V4 was adopted. This plan emphasized the role of Joint Logistic Support Group Headquarters and establishment of a regional Battlegroup. They also formed a plan of deeper cooperation with NATO and EU in defense. When Poland became the President of V4 in 2024-2025 its agenda was about safety, police and defense cooperation and countering hybrid attack. Work in this direction, deeper cooperation, joint projects continued in 2026. One of the most important goals is to develop transport infrastructure. Of course it is important for deeper economic cooperation and strengthening ties between countries, but also new railways may be used for the army and weapons. One of the biggest problems is deployment of NATO troops on the Eastern flank in case of aggression. Development of railways and other transport infrastructure is necessary for defense. V4 under Slovak Presidency declared plan of enlarging partnership with North American countries. One of the pillars was declared defense cooperation and infrastructure links. So, despite V4 was established as an economic and cultural union at the latest time, it renewed and played a more important role in forming closer ties and common foreign policy of its members, that influence on the safety of the region.
Another regional union is a plan of linking countries between three seas: Baltic, Black and Adriatic. Three Seas initiative created as a regional union for strengthen economic ties. Countries of this union created some transport infrastructure projects, such as Rail Baltic and via Carpatia. This regional union depends on developing transport infrastructure and deeper ties between Central-European countries.
Besides economical unions Poland is also a member of some regional defense unions.
The first example is the Lublin triangle that unites Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania. Although union deeper economic and cultural ties between countries it also play important role in defense. One of the main goal of Lublin triangle is forming joint self-defense and guarantees of security. In 2014 was established Polish-Ukrainian-Lithuanian battlegroup LITPOLUKRBRIG for peacemaking and humanitarian missions. This military unit is used for exercises and training. Main threat Lublin triangle fighting with is Russian aggression and hybrid threats.
Also Poland is a member of the Bucharest Nine. This regional union was formed in NATO for strengthen Eastern flank. This union was created in 2015 by former President of Poland Andrzej Duda and former President of Romania Klaus Iohannis in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine. After 2022 the role of this union increased and it gained a strategic importance in the policy of Poland and other countries of the region. Bucharest Nine assigned a special role to joint safety of the Eastern flank of NATO. Joint self-defense reinforces the ability of countries of the region to counter hybrid and real threats. So regional unions are an important part of Polish security foreign policy.
These unions play different roles in Polish security. Vyshegrad Four (V4) is regional union that unite former socialistic republics cooperation among them includes security and logistic issues. It make deployment of troops easier and faster. Three Seas Initiative (3SI) is broader union that deeper ties between 13 countries between Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas. Lublin triangle (L3) is alliance of Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania that strengthen military cooperation between them. And Bucharest Nine (B9) that unite members of NATO in East Europe and strengthen security of this region. Besides, the activity of some of these unions has lowered in the latest time countries are working on renewing their ties.
Poland plays the role of regional power or strives to be. Polish officials talk about forming the biggest land force in Central Europe. For this goal Poland developes its defense industry and buys heavy weapons from other countries. Polish officials talk about conscription as a way of preparing citizens to war and strengthenimg the army. Also Poland increased its defense spendings to 4.68% of GDP. Poland feels threatened by Russia. And is this threats real? In 2021 the Polish-Belarusian border migration crisis was provoked. That made Poland to strengthen its border with Belarus. After Russian full scale invasion in Ukraine risks of aggression against Poland increased.
One of the obvious variants is the attack on Suwalki. Is a region on the Polish-Lithuanian border that has a strategic importance. This narrow line maintains communication with the Baltic states. Obviously Russia in a hypothetical scenario shall try to cut down this corridor. Moreover Poland plays an important role in protecting the Baltic region in general. Thats why Poland underlined the role of defense of Baltic sea in agreement signed with France, Great Britain and Germany. Poland shares a border with Russia on the northeast, where it can be attacked. In a hypothetical scenario Russia may attack Poland from the territory of Belarus. Thas why Poland strengthened eastern border. Poland works with Baltic states on forming a joint defense line. Eastern Shield also plays an important role. That plan is about forming a line of defensive fortification on the border with Russia and Belarus.
Poland was also attacked by UAV. One of the biggest attacks was in September 2025, when several Russian drones crossed a border. The risk of accidental or deliberate crossing of the border compelled Polish officials to develop anti-unmanned defense. Also the risk of sabotage is still relevant. The Polish defense factory already became the target of sabotage. In October 2026 Starlink station in Poland was burnt. First of all this act of sabotage was directed at weakening Ukrainian defense abilities. But of course it decreased Polish defense and weakened its army. In case of war between NATO and Russia Poland shall be on the frontline and in danger for its independence condition. That`s why creating a strong defense line, forming a great and high-tech army and deepening ties with its allies within the region and beyond are the main priorities of Polish foreign policy in the field of defense.
Poland stands face to face with a real threat from Russia. Acts of sabotage, invasion on its territory by UAV, threats from its officials is the reality of Poland. Poland feels danger from its eastern neighbor and prepares for the worst scenario. American guarantees are not reliable. US foreign policy is not consecutive and the USA is not a trustworthy ally. Poland works to get more guarantees from other allies in NATO. Agreement with France and Great Britain gives more hopes on ironclad guarantees. Also regional unions play an important role in developing ties between neighboring countries. The main ally of Poland that can protect it from Russian invasion is Ukraine which fights against invaders. But Poland must prepare for raising risks of invasion.
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